Home-Buying Sentiment Turns Defensive After BOJ's Hike to 1.0% ⇄ Taiwan's Real-Estate Lending Ratio Falls to 24.37% for a 12th Straight Month, a 15-Year-Plus Low: A Japan–Taiwan Housing-Finance Comparison
IDAEO Card ID: ANK-2026-06-25-010 Version: v1.0.0 Published: 2026-06-28 Author: Rin Takenouchi (Editor-in-Chief, AI News) Category: Housing finance / Mortgages / Monetary policy / Japan–Taiwan comparison Articles Covered: CNA#202606250353 (Taiwan's May real-estate lending ratio 24.37%, down for a 12th month to a 15-year low), PRTIMES#1189453 (LIFULL HOME'S mortgage sentiment survey after the BOJ hike), CNA#202605260374 (Taiwan's April lending ratio 24.67%), CNA#202606220289 (New Youth Housing May intake up, expiring in July) Selection method: From the AI News corpus, the Japan side takes "home-buying psychology after the BOJ hike" and the Taiwan side takes "Taiwan's real-estate lending ratio at a 15-year low after a 12-month decline" as strong lead stories, each anchored by official/survey-institution figures, then chains two supporting strands on the same housing-finance-cooldown theme—Taiwan's April ratio (a time-series contrast that also corrects a headline misprint) and the New Youth Housing expiry (a policy variable). The two sides use different metrics (Japan: rates/sentiment survey; Taiwan: credit ratio/balance statistics) and are presented separately, never merged into a single indicator, to map two cooldown mechanisms under a simultaneous tightening environment.
TL;DR
In Japan, per the background noted in the LIFULL HOME'S survey press release, the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1.0% in June 2026, following a December 2025 hike (described in that press release, not a direct BOJ announcement). [F-006] A LIFULL HOME'S survey of 881 people planning to buy a home within five years using a mortgage found that, after the hike announcement, 57.4% became "somewhat cautious" about buying, 6.5% shelved purchases, and 36.2% were unchanged. [F-007] About 60% of prospective buyers turn cautious if rates rise by 1.0% (rise of ~1.0% 47.1% + rise of ~0.5% 11.8% = 58.9%). [F-008] Even amid the June 2026 hike, 56.0% chose variable rates, the share wanting to "buy before rates rise" fell from 42.7% previously to 35.1%, and 95.1% felt anxious about mortgage repayment. [F-009] In Taiwan, FSC data show the real-estate lending ratio of 36 domestic banks fell to 24.37% as of end-May 2026, down for a 12th straight month and the lowest since January 2011, a 15-year-plus low. [F-001] But the decline is driven mainly by an expanding deposit denominator, not shrinking mortgages: the home-purchase loan balance of NT$11.69 trillion was still up 4.31% from end-May 2025, with the mortgage NPL ratio at just 0.08%. [F-002] The construction loan balance was NT$3.89 trillion, up 1.13% from end-May 2025. [F-003] For contrast, the April-2026 ratio was 24.67% (down for an 11th month); it is a different month from May's 24.37% and must not be conflated. [F-004] The New Youth Housing program expires at end-July 2026; eight state banks' May-2026 intake was NT$37.613 billion, up 16% from April 2026. [F-005] Japan and Taiwan converge via different mechanisms on the same housing-finance-cooldown theme.
Body
1. Japan: a hike to 1.0%, and buying psychology shifts from offense to defense
The trigger for Japan's housing-finance cooldown is the BOJ's rate decision. Per the background noted in the LIFULL HOME'S mortgage sentiment survey, the BOJ raised its policy rate to 1.0% at its June 2026 policy meeting, following a December 2025 hike; the survey's accompanying commentary adds that on June 16, 2026 the policy rate was lifted from about 0.75% to about 1.00% (PRTIMES #1189453). [F-006] An honest caveat: in this card's source, the hike is described in the background/commentary of the LIFULL HOME'S survey press release, not quoted directly from a single Bank of Japan official announcement.
The hike produced a measurable chill in buying psychology. LIFULL HOME'S Research surveyed 881 men and women nationwide aged 25–49 who plan to buy within five years using a mortgage, via an internet survey on June 16–17, 2026. After the announcement, 57.4% said they had become "somewhat cautious" about buying, 6.5% said they would "hold off for now," and 36.2% said their intent was "unchanged" (PRTIMES #1189453). [F-007] In other words, the hike applied a brake to buying psychology, but only a minority abandoned purchases, and the survey institution judged that "real demand remains resilient." Note that this is a forward-looking sentiment survey measuring intent, not actual transactions.
2. The rate-tolerance threshold and variable-rate preference
The survey measured buyers' "rate tolerance" more granularly. In the June 2026 survey, asked how much a rise from current mortgage rates would make them cautious about buying, "a rise of about 1.0% (47.1%)" was most common; adding "a rise of about 0.5% (11.8%)," a rate increase within 1.0% turned 58.9% (about 60%) cautious, reaching a cumulative 86.8% within 1.5% (PRTIMES #1189453). [F-008] The survey institution called this the "1.0% rate-rise wall" in its June 2026 survey (its own figurative label: 58.9%—about 60%—turn cautious, not an absolute barrier for everyone, with rate tolerance topping out at about 1.5%), a psychological defense line for many prospective buyers.
The paradox: even amid the hike, 56.0% chose "variable rates," a majority still prioritizing low rates. At the same time, in the June 2026 survey the rush-to-buy ("buy before rates rise") sentiment fell from 42.7% previously to 35.1%, down 7.6 points—once the hike became certain, the urgency to buy ahead of it actually receded. Moreover, 95.1% felt anxious about whether they could repay the mortgage (the sum of two items: "very anxious" 59.3% and "somewhat anxious" 35.8%) (PRTIMES #1189453). [F-009] The institution notes this repayment anxiety did not spike suddenly with the June hike but had already neared its limit amid high prices and rate-rise expectations. (Note: LIFULL Co., Ltd., listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime market under ticker 2120, has run this periodic mortgage survey for years.)
3. Taiwan: the lending ratio falls for a 12th month, the lowest since January 2011
Shifting the lens to Taiwan, the housing-finance cooldown shows up in a different metric—banks' real-estate lending ratio. Per FSC data, as of end-May 2026 the real-estate lending ratio of 36 domestic banks (excluding the Land Bank and Eximbank) fell to an average of 24.37%, down for a 12th straight month and the lowest since January 2011, a 15-year-plus low (CNA #202606250353). [F-001]
This "real-estate lending ratio" corresponds to Article 72-2 of the Banking Act, colloquially the "real-estate lending iron rule": it caps a commercial bank's total residential- and corporate-construction lending at 30% (three-tenths) of deposits plus financial-bond issuance at the time of lending, ensuring credit is not overconcentrated in long-tenor real estate. The FSC Banking Bureau stated plainly that the decline's main cause is not shrinking mortgages but "growth in total deposits making the denominator expand faster," with the deposit increase coming mainly from large-and-mid-sized firms, public enterprises, and large post-office time deposits. By distribution, banks at 29%-and-above and in the 28–29% band were zero, with three banks in the 27–28% band. The government also excludes New Youth Housing loans disbursed on or after September 1, 2024 from the Article 72-2 cap; the cumulative exclusion from September 2024 to May 2026 was NT$209.7 billion (CNA #202606250353). [F-001]
4. In Taiwan the ratio falls yet the mortgage balance keeps hitting records: a denominator effect, not market contraction
A record-low lending ratio does not mean a housing-market cooldown—this is the most important, most easily misread point on the Taiwan side. The same FSC data show that, as of end-May 2026, the home-purchase loan balance was NT$11.69 trillion, up NT$37.1 billion from April 2026 and up 4.31% from end-May 2025, driven mainly by banks actively writing first-time-buyer mortgages and by split-unit lending. End-May mortgage delinquencies were NT$8.85 billion, an NPL ratio of 0.08%, the same as April 2026 (CNA #202606250353). [F-002]
For construction loans, the end-May 2026 balance was NT$3.89 trillion, down NT$900 million from April 2026 and up 1.13% from end-May 2025, with a construction-loan NPL ratio of 0.05%, down 0.01 point from April 2026 (CNA #202606250353). [F-003] On the whole, in 2026 Taiwan's real-estate lending ratio fell for consecutive months, yet the mortgage balance still rose year over year with record-setting momentum intact and NPL ratios held at the 0.08%/0.05% low—"a record-low ratio" reflects rapid deposit-denominator expansion, not a contraction in housing credit. The two must be read together.
5. Time-series contrast: April's 24.67% and May's 24.37% are different months and must not be conflated
To avoid misreading, the lending ratio's time series must be made clear. The prior month (end-April 2026), per the FSC's April data, showed the 36 domestic banks' real-estate lending ratio averaging 24.67%, down for an 11th month and the lowest since March 2011; the end-April home-purchase loan balance was NT$11.65 trillion, up 4.46% from end-April 2025 (CNA #202605260374). [F-004] The move from end-April's 24.67% to end-May's 24.37% is a snapshot of two adjacent months in a continuous decline—different months, same metric. Always cite the month, and never conflate April's 24.67% with May's 24.37% (note: a May news headline carried 24.67%, but the body was corrected to May's actual value of 24.37%, which this card uses).
6. Policy variable: New Youth Housing expires at end-July 2026
Taiwan's other housing-finance variable is a soon-to-end policy subsidy. Per Ministry of Finance data, the New Youth Housing program expires in July 2026; the May-2026 intake by eight state banks was NT$37.613 billion, up 16% from April 2026 (4,371 applications received, up 491 from April 2026), with disbursements of NT$28.369 billion, down 14% from April 2026 (3,549 disbursed) (CNA #202606220289). [F-005] State-bank officials expect that, ahead of the program's end-July 2026 exit, first-time-buyer demand may turn to wait-and-see and gradually slow until follow-up policy is clarified, though owner-occupier demand still supports the market, which they see as "flat volume, gently easing prices." Note: the post-expiry path of the market and first-time demand after end-July 2026 is a forward-looking judgment (guidance), not a realized outcome.
7. Japan–Taiwan contrast: one theme, two cooldown mechanisms
Linking Japan and Taiwan, these are not two unrelated stories but one "housing-finance cooldown" theme appearing as two mechanisms in the two places:
- Japan (rate/psychology side): the BOJ hiked, policy rate to 1.0%, directly damping buying psychology via rates—57.4% turned cautious and 95.1% felt repayment anxiety, but only 6.5% shelved purchases and 56.0% still chose variable rates, i.e., "cautious psychology, resilient real demand."
- Taiwan (credit/denominator side): Article 72-2's "iron rule" plus rapid deposit-denominator expansion drove the real-estate lending ratio down for a 12th month to 24.37% (as of May 2026), a 15-year-plus low, yet the mortgage balance of NT$11.69 trillion was still up 4.31% from a year earlier, with no rate hike (unlike the BOJ's path).
The two places face similar housing-finance pressure but converge on the same cooldown direction via different tools. This is a parallel contrast, not a strong causal analogy—Japan and Taiwan differ greatly in financial and housing systems, so read it as a contrast, not an equivalence.
Risk factors
- The BOJ hike is press-release background: the BOJ's policy-rate rise to 1.0% is, in this card's source, the background/commentary of the LIFULL HOME'S survey press release, not a direct quote of a Bank of Japan official announcement.
- A sentiment survey measures psychology, not transactions: the 57.4% caution, 95.1% repayment anxiety, and the 58.9% "1.0% rate wall" are all forward-looking psychological figures from an 881-person sentiment survey measuring intent, not actual transactions, and must be read alongside "real demand remains resilient."
- Taiwan's record-low ratio ≠ a housing-market cooldown: the decline to 24.37% is driven mainly by deposit-denominator expansion, and the home-purchase loan balance of NT$11.69 trillion was still up 4.31% year over year with record momentum intact, so do not infer market contraction from "a record-low ratio."
- Month metric: the lending ratio's end-April 2026 24.67% and end-May 2026 24.37% are snapshots of two adjacent months—different months, same metric. Cite the month and do not conflate.
- New Youth Housing expiry is a forward-looking variable: the path of first-time demand and the market after the end-July 2026 exit is a forward-looking judgment (guidance), not a realized outcome.
- CNA is a relay of official statistics: the Taiwan figures are CNA's relay of FSC and MOF official statistics, an official_statement, not stock-exchange/EDINET statutory filing hard numbers.
FAQ
Q: How did Japanese buyers' psychology change after the BOJ hike?
After the BOJ raised its policy rate to 1.0% in June 2026, a LIFULL HOME'S survey of 881 people found 57.4% turned "somewhat cautious" about buying and 95.1% felt anxious about mortgage repayment, yet only 6.5% abandoned purchases—a "cautious psychology, resilient real demand" picture.
Per the LIFULL HOME'S mortgage sentiment survey, the BOJ raised its policy rate to 1.0% in June 2026, following a December 2025 hike. In the survey of 881 people planning to buy within five years using a mortgage, after the announcement 57.4% became "somewhat cautious," 6.5% would "hold off for now," and 36.2% were "unchanged." Those anxious about repayment reached 95.1% (the sum of two items: "very anxious" 59.3% and "somewhat anxious" 35.8%). This is a forward-looking sentiment survey measuring intent, not actual transactions, and the institution stressed that "real demand remains resilient" (PRTIMES #1189453).
Q: What is the "1.0% rate-rise wall"?
It is the rate-tolerance threshold of Japanese buyers measured by the June 2026 LIFULL HOME'S survey: a rise of about 1.0% or less from current mortgage rates turns 58.9% (about 60%) cautious about buying, reaching a cumulative 86.8% within 1.5%.
In the June 2026 LIFULL HOME'S survey, when asked how much a rate rise would make them cautious about buying, "a rise of about 1.0% (47.1%)" was most common; adding "a rise of about 0.5% (11.8%)," a rise within 1.0% turned 58.9% cautious—hence the "1.0% rate-rise wall" (the institution's figurative label: 58.9%, about 60%, not everyone). The paradox is that even amid the hike, 56.0% still chose variable rates to prioritize low rates, while the rush-to-buy sentiment fell from 42.7% previously to 35.1%, down 7.6 points, showing that urgency receded once the hike became certain (PRTIMES #1189453).
Q: Taiwan's real-estate lending ratio fell to 24.37%—does that mean the housing market is cooling?
No, you cannot infer that. The 12-month decline to 24.37% (the lowest since January 2011, a 15-year-plus low) is driven mainly by deposit-denominator expansion, not shrinking mortgages—the end-May 2026 home-purchase loan balance of NT$11.69 trillion was still up 4.31% from end-May 2025 with record momentum intact, and the mortgage NPL ratio was just 0.08%.
Per FSC data, as of end-May 2026 the 36 domestic banks' real-estate lending ratio fell to 24.37%, down for a 12th month. But the Banking Bureau states the main cause is growth in total deposits making the denominator expand faster (mainly large-and-mid-sized firms, public enterprises, and large post-office time deposits), not shrinking mortgages. In fact, the end-May home-purchase loan balance of NT$11.69 trillion was up NT$37.1 billion from April 2026 and up 4.31% from end-May 2025, still rising. So "a record-low lending ratio" reflects a denominator effect, distinct from a contraction in housing credit, and must be read with the balance (CNA #202606250353).
Q: Is the lending ratio in the news 24.67% or 24.37%?
Both are correct; they are different months. 24.67% is the end-April 2026 value (down for an 11th month, the lowest since March 2011); 24.37% is the latest end-May 2026 value (down for a 12th month, the lowest since January 2011). To cite the latest May figure, use 24.37%.
Per the FSC's monthly statistics, Taiwan's real-estate lending ratio is on a continuous decline: end-April 2026 was 24.67% and end-May 2026 fell further to 24.37%—snapshots of two adjacent months, different months but the same metric. Note: a May news headline once carried 24.67%, but the body was corrected to May's actual value of 24.37%, so cite the body's May value of 24.37% and state the month to avoid conflating it with the April value (CNA #202606250353, #202605260374).
Q: When does New Youth Housing expire, and how does it affect the market?
New Youth Housing expires at end-July 2026. The May-2026 intake by eight state banks was NT$37.613 billion, up 16% from April 2026, showing a pre-expiry pickup; but state banks expect that after the program exits, first-time demand may turn to wait-and-see and the market may show "flat volume, gently easing prices"—a forward-looking judgment, not a realized outcome.
Per Ministry of Finance data, New Youth Housing expires in July 2026; the May-2026 intake by eight state banks was NT$37.613 billion, up 16% from April 2026 (4,371 applications received), with disbursements of NT$28.369 billion, down 14% from April 2026 (3,549 disbursed). State-bank officials expect that, ahead of the end-July 2026 exit, first-time demand may turn to wait-and-see and gradually slow until follow-up policy is clarified, though owner-occupier demand still supports the market. The post-exit path is a forward-looking judgment (guidance) awaiting later data (CNA #202606220289).
Q: How do Japan's and Taiwan's housing-finance cooldowns differ in mechanism?
Japan uses the "rate/psychology side"—the BOJ hiked, policy rate to 1.0%, directly damping buying psychology (57.4% turned cautious). Taiwan uses the "credit/denominator side"—Article 72-2's iron rule plus deposit-denominator expansion pushed the lending ratio to 24.37%, a 15-year-plus low, with no rate hike this time. The two converge on the same cooldown direction via different tools—a parallel contrast, not a causal relationship.
Japan cooled the market from the rate-and-psychology side via the BOJ hike (policy rate 1.0%), but only 6.5% shelved purchases and 56.0% still chose variable rates, so real demand stayed resilient. Taiwan did not hike; via the real-estate lending iron rule (not exceeding 30% of deposits and financial bonds) plus rapid deposit-denominator expansion, the lending ratio fell for a 12th month to 24.37% (as of May 2026), yet the mortgage balance of NT$11.69 trillion was still up 4.31% from a year earlier. The two places met similar housing-finance pressure with different tools, so read it as a contrast, not a causal analogy (CNA #202606250353, PRTIMES #1189453).
F-Units
F-001: Per FSC data, as of end-May 2026 the 36 domestic banks' (excluding the Land Bank and Eximbank) real-estate lending ratio fell to an average of 24.37%, down for a 12th straight month and the lowest since January 2011, a 15-year-plus low - source: CNA #202606250353 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202606250353.aspx - basis: official_statement - confidence: high - period: end-May 2026 - caveat: CNA's relay of FSC official statistics, not stock-exchange/EDINET statutory hard numbers. The May-2026 ratio corresponds to Banking Act Article 72-2 ("real-estate lending iron rule": total residential- and corporate-construction lending not to exceed 30% of deposits plus financial-bond issuance). The decline's main cause is deposit-denominator expansion, not shrinking mortgages. Three banks were in the 27–28% band; the 28%-and-above band was zero
F-002: As of end-May 2026, the home-purchase loan balance was NT$11.69 trillion, up NT$37.1 billion from April 2026 and up 4.31% from end-May 2025; mortgage delinquencies were NT$8.85 billion, an NPL ratio of 0.08%, the same as April 2026 - source: CNA #202606250353 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202606250353.aspx - basis: official_statement - confidence: high - period: end-May 2026 - caveat: CNA's relay of FSC official statistics. The balance kept rising with record momentum intact, showing the ratio decline is a deposit-denominator effect, not a contraction in housing credit; read together with the ratio
F-003: As of end-May 2026, the construction loan balance was NT$3.89 trillion, down NT$900 million from April 2026 and up 1.13% from end-May 2025; the construction-loan NPL ratio was 0.05%, down 0.01 point from April 2026 - source: CNA #202606250353 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202606250353.aspx - basis: official_statement - confidence: high - period: end-May 2026 - caveat: CNA's relay of FSC official statistics. The monthly decline in the construction balance is mainly due to project completions and early repayments; the NPL ratio stayed at a low level
F-004: Per FSC data, as of end-April 2026 the 36 domestic banks' real-estate lending ratio averaged 24.67%, down for an 11th month and the lowest since March 2011; the end-April home-purchase loan balance was NT$11.65 trillion, up 4.46% from end-April 2025 - source: CNA #202605260374 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202605260374.aspx - basis: official_statement - confidence: high - period: end-April 2026 - caveat: CNA's relay of FSC official statistics. 24.67% is the end-April 2026 value; it and end-May 2026's 24.37% are snapshots of two adjacent months—different months, same metric. Cite the month and do not conflate (a May news headline misprinted 24.67%; the body was corrected to 24.37%)
F-005: New Youth Housing expires in July 2026; the May-2026 intake by eight state banks was NT$37.613 billion, up 16% from April 2026 (4,371 received, +491), with disbursements of NT$28.369 billion, down 14% from April 2026 (3,549 disbursed) - source: CNA #202606220289 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202606220289.aspx - basis: official_statement - confidence: high - period: May 2026 - caveat: CNA's relay of MOF official statistics. The path of first-time demand and the market after the end-July 2026 expiry is a forward-looking judgment (guidance), not a realized outcome
F-006: The BOJ raised its policy rate to 1.0% in June 2026, following a December 2025 hike (commentary: lifted from about 0.75% to about 1.00% on June 16, 2026) - source: PRTIMES #1189453 - source_url: https://prtimes.jp/main/html/rd/p/000000880.000033058.html - basis: official_statement - confidence: medium - period: June 2026 - caveat: The hike is described in the background/commentary of the LIFULL HOME'S (LIFULL Co., Ltd.) mortgage sentiment survey press release, not a direct quote of a single Bank of Japan official announcement
F-007: LIFULL HOME'S surveyed 881 people planning to buy within five years using a mortgage (nationwide, ages 25–49, internet survey June 16–17, 2026); after the hike announcement 57.4% turned "somewhat cautious," 6.5% would "hold off for now," 36.2% "unchanged" - source: PRTIMES #1189453 - source_url: https://prtimes.jp/main/html/rd/p/000000880.000033058.html - basis: official_statement - confidence: medium - period: June 2026 - caveat: A LIFULL HOME'S sentiment-survey press-release value, sample 881, a forward-looking psychological measure of intent, not actual transactions; "57.4% cautious" must be read with the institution's judgment that "real demand remains resilient"
F-008: In the LIFULL HOME'S survey, a rise within ~1.0% from current mortgage rates turned 58.9% (rise of ~1.0% 47.1% + rise of ~0.5% 11.8%) cautious about buying, a cumulative 86.8% within 1.5% (the "1.0% rate-rise wall") - source: PRTIMES #1189453 - source_url: https://prtimes.jp/main/html/rd/p/000000880.000033058.html - basis: official_statement - confidence: medium - period: June 2026 - caveat: A LIFULL HOME'S sentiment-survey press-release value reflecting forward-looking buying psychology under a hypothetical rate scenario, not realized rate or transaction data
F-009: In the LIFULL HOME'S survey, even amid the hike 56.0% chose variable rates; the share wanting to "buy before rates rise" fell from 42.7% previously to 35.1% (down 7.6 points); those anxious about repayment reached 95.1% (the sum of two items: "very anxious" 59.3% and "somewhat anxious" 35.8%) - source: PRTIMES #1189453 - source_url: https://prtimes.jp/main/html/rd/p/000000880.000033058.html - basis: official_statement - confidence: medium - period: June 2026 - caveat: A LIFULL HOME'S sentiment-survey press-release value. The institution notes the repayment anxiety did not spike with the June hike but had already neared its limit amid high prices and rate-rise expectations
J-Units
J-001: In 2026 Japan and Taiwan are both in a housing-finance cooldown environment but converge via different mechanisms—Japan via the rate/psychology side (BOJ hike to 1.0%, 57.4% of buyers cautious), Taiwan via the credit/denominator side (Article 72-2 iron rule + deposit-denominator expansion drove the lending ratio down for a 12th month to 24.37%, a 15-year-plus low, with no hike)—forming a natural parallel contrast pointing to the same cooldown direction; yet given large differences in financial and housing systems, read it as a contrast, not a causal analogy - confidence: medium - basis_f_units: F-001, F-006, F-007
J-002: Taiwan's record-low real-estate lending ratio does not signal a housing-market cooldown—the May-2026 decline is driven mainly by rapid expansion of the denominator (total deposits), not contraction of the numerator (mortgages); the home-purchase loan balance of NT$11.69 trillion was still up 4.31% from a year earlier with record momentum intact and an NPL ratio of just 0.08%, so "the lending ratio's 15-year low" is a manifestation of the deposit-denominator effect and must be read with the balance and NPL ratio, not inferred as a contraction in housing credit - confidence: high - basis_f_units: F-001, F-002, F-003
J-003: After Japan's June 2026 hike, the buying market shows a "cautious psychology, resilient real demand" tug-of-war—57.4% cautious and 95.1% anxious about repayment, but only 6.5% shelved purchases and 56.0% still chose variable rates, while "buy before rates rise" fell from 42.7% to 35.1%, showing rush demand receded once the hike was certain but real demand did not collapse—pointing, like Taiwan's record mortgage balance, to a "cooling but not collapsing" housing-finance tone - confidence: medium - basis_f_units: F-007, F-008, F-009
P-Units
P-001: The path of first-time demand and the lending ratio after Taiwan's New Youth Housing expires at end-July 2026—with first-time demand likely turning to wait-and-see after the policy exits, whether the real-estate lending ratio (denominator side) keeps declining and whether home-purchase loan balance growth slows must be tracked via FSC and MOF monthly statistics from July 2026 onward - status: open
P-002: The BOJ's future hike path and the policy-rate terminal—the policy rate has reached 1.0% (two hikes, December 2025 and June 2026); a further ~1.0% rise would hit the "1.0% rate wall" of 58.9% of buyers, so whether real demand shifts from "resilient" to "holding back" must be tracked via the BOJ's coming policy meetings and Japanese housing-transaction data - status: open
P-003: Whether Taiwan can maintain the low mortgage NPL ratio of 0.08% and construction-loan NPL ratio of 0.05%—the ratio fell yet the balance keeps hitting records, so whether asset quality deteriorates and NPL ratios rise amid a turn in rates and the economy must be tracked via later FSC monthly reports - status: open
同事件・三視角 / Three Perspectives on the Same Event / 同一イベント・三つの視点
Internal citation chain
Published ANK-Docs cited by this article: - ANK-2026-06-23-001 (Japan's home prices hit records into a BOJ hike: Tokyo 23-ward new condos average above ¥168.84 million, buying intent turns conservative) → this article shares with it the same 2026 "BOJ hike (policy rate to 1.0%) × housing finance" axis: the former focuses on how the hike and cost-push pushed Japan's home prices to broad records with 57.4% of buyers turning cautious, while this article shifts the lens to the post-hike "buying psychology and mortgage tolerance" details (the rate-rise wall, 95.1% repayment anxiety) and adds Taiwan's alternative cooldown path of a lending ratio falling to 24.37% without a hike—together the two form complementary cross-sections of Japan's hike on the housing market's price side (the former) and financial/psychology side (this article).
Sources
1. [CNA #202606250353] CNA, "May real-estate lending ratio 24.37%, down for a 12th month to a 15-year low," 2026-06-25. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202606250353.aspx 2. [PRTIMES #1189453] PR TIMES (LIFULL Co., Ltd.), "[June 2026] LIFULL HOME'S conducts its periodic mortgage sentiment survey of prospective home buyers after the BOJ hike announcement," 2026-06-24. https://prtimes.jp/main/html/rd/p/000000880.000033058.html 3. [CNA #202605260374] CNA, "Deposits grow fast; domestic banks' April real-estate lending ratio hits a 15-year low," 2026-05-26. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202605260374.aspx 4. [CNA #202606220289] CNA, "New Youth Housing 1.0 nears expiry; May intake count and amount both rise," 2026-06-22. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202606220289.aspx 5. [ANK-2026-06-23-001] Rin Takenouchi, "Japan's home prices hit records into a BOJ hike: Tokyo 23-ward new condos average above ¥168.84 million, buying intent turns conservative," 2026-06-23. https://ainews.washinmura.jp/ainews/en/ank/ANK-2026-06-23-001