"Taiwan's credit curbs are working: the real-estate lending ratio fell for a 12th straight month to 24.37%, a 15-year-plus low, Q1 new mortgages at the five major banks dropped 26.5% year on year to a three-year low, and 2025 building-transfer transactions fell 25.45%; but with home-price correction limited and Governor Yang Chin-long citing three reasons to hold the line, Taiwan's housing market enters a 'lower volume, flat prices' soft landing"

TL;DR: Under more than a year and a half of selective credit controls, Taiwan's housing market is soft-landing in a "lower volume, flat prices" shape. The evidence of falling volume lines up. The Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC) reported that, as of end-May 2026, the Banking Act Article 72-2 "real-estate lending ratio" at 36 domestic banks fell to 24.37%, a 12th straight monthly decline and the lowest since January 2011, a 15-year-plus low. The central bank reported Q1 2026 new mortgages at the five major banks of NT$152.554 billion, down NT$54.996 billion from Q1 2025 and 26.5% year on year, the lowest first quarter in three years. The central bank's 20th Financial Stability Report showed 2025 nationwide building-transfer transactions of 261,000 units, down 25.45% year on year. Concentration also fell: Governor Yang Chin-long noted that real-estate loans as a share of total bank lending dropped from a peak of 37.6% at end-June 2024 to 35.2% at end-May 2026. But the other side of the coin is that "prices" remain sticky: the Sinyi house-price index hit a record 181.36 in April 2026, and the nationwide mortgage burden ratio fell from a Q3 2024 peak of 46.8% to 40.75% in Q4 2025 but Taipei City was still 63.92%. So at its June 2026 board meeting the central bank held rates for a ninth straight meeting and all board members unanimously kept the credit controls in place, with Yang citing three reasons (limited price correction, money flowing into stocks, the need to watch New Youth Housing Loan 2.0) to hold the line for now. Realtors, for their part, see the "worst" as over after about 18 months of controls, with the market shifting from "liquidity-expansion pricing" to "credit-constraint pricing."

Taiwan's credit curbs are working: the real-estate lending ratio fell for a 12th straight month to 24.37%, a 15-year-plus low, Q1 new mortgages at the five major banks dropped 26.5% year on year to a three-year low, and 2025 building-transfer transactions fell 25.45%; but with home-price correction limited and Governor Yang Chin-long citing three reasons to hold the line, Taiwan's housing market enters a "lower volume, flat prices" soft landing

ANK-Doc ID: ANK-2026-06-25-011 Version: v1.0.0 Published: 2026-06-28 Author: Rin Takenouchi (Editor-in-Chief, AI News) Category: Macroeconomics / Real estate / Financial supervision / Monetary policy Articles covered: CNA#1231865 (May real-estate lending ratio 24.37%, 12th straight monthly decline, 15-year low), CNA#187594 (curbs work, Q1 new mortgages down 26.5%), CNA#459499 (after the central bank's small easing, April new mortgages keep falling), CNA#575184 (Financial Stability Report, mortgage burden ratio eases but stays heavy), CNA#1099235 (rates held a ninth straight meeting, realtors say the worst is over), CNA#1099667 (Yang Chin-long's three reasons, no easing for now) Selection method: From the AI News corpus, six articles were threaded around "central bank/FSC credit controls × the lower-volume, flat-price soft landing of Taiwan's housing market." We started with the hardest-number lead (the FSC's May real-estate lending ratio of 24.37%, a 12th straight monthly decline, the lowest since January 2011, a 15-year-plus low), then added the lending-flow side (the central bank's Q1 five-major-bank new mortgages down 26.5% to a three-year low, April still falling), the transaction-volume and burden side (the Financial Stability Report: 2025 building-transfer transactions down 25.45%, the mortgage burden ratio down from 46.8% to 40.75%), the concentration and policy side (Yang Chin-long's real-estate loan concentration 37.6%→35.2%, three reasons to hold the line for now), and the market side (realtors saying the worst is over after about 18 months of controls). It honestly presents both faces—"clear volume contraction, still-sticky prices"—on official statistics and official remarks, without inventing any individual transaction or price move.

TL;DR

Under more than a year and a half of selective credit controls, Taiwan's housing market is soft-landing in a "lower volume, flat prices" shape. The evidence of falling volume lines up. The FSC reported that, as of end-May 2026, the Banking Act Article 72-2 "real-estate lending ratio" at 36 domestic banks fell to 24.37%, a 12th straight monthly decline and the lowest since January 2011, a 15-year-plus low [F1]. The central bank reported Q1 2026 new mortgages at the five major banks of NT$152.554 billion, down NT$54.996 billion from Q1 2025 and 26.5% year on year, the lowest first quarter in three years [F5]. The central bank's 20th Financial Stability Report showed 2025 nationwide building-transfer transactions of 261,000 units, down 25.45% [F10]. Concentration also fell: Governor Yang Chin-long noted real-estate loans as a share of total bank lending dropped from a peak of 37.6% at end-June 2024 to 35.2% at end-May 2026 [F12]. But "prices" remain sticky: the Sinyi house-price index hit a record 181.36 in April 2026 [F8], and the nationwide mortgage burden ratio fell from a Q3 2024 peak of 46.8% to 40.75% in Q4 2025 but Taipei City was still 63.92% [F9]. So at its June 2026 board meeting the central bank held rates for a ninth straight meeting and all board members unanimously kept the credit controls, with Yang citing three reasons to hold the line for now [F11][F12]; realtors see the worst as over after about 18 months of controls, with the market shifting from "liquidity-expansion pricing" to "credit-constraint pricing" [F13].

Body

The headline number of falling volume: the real-estate lending ratio falls for a 12th straight month to a 15-year-plus low

The hardest headline number in this soft landing comes from the banks' "real-estate lending ceiling." Per the FSC, as of end-May 2026 the real-estate lending ratio at 36 domestic banks (excluding the Land Bank and the Export-Import Bank) averaged 24.37%, a 12th straight monthly decline and the lowest since January 2011, a 15-year-plus low; FSC Banking Bureau Deputy Director-General Chang Chia-kui explained that the decline mainly reflected growth in total deposits enlarging the denominator, driven by large time deposits from mid-to-large enterprises, state-run firms and the post office (CNA #1231865). [F1] This indicator, nicknamed the "real-estate lending ceiling," hitting a 15-year-plus low is the most direct quantitative signpost of the credit controls' effect.

The legal basis of this "ceiling" is Banking Act Article 72-2. Per the FSC, Article 72-2 limits commercial banks' total residential-construction and corporate-construction lending to no more than 30% (three-tenths) of the deposits and financial bonds outstanding at the time of lending, so that bank credit is not overly concentrated in long-tenor and real-estate exposure; by distribution, as of end-May 2026 the number of banks at 29% and above, and in the 28%-to-29% band, was zero, while three banks sat in the 27%-to-28% band (CNA #1231865). [F2] Zero banks at high ratios near the cap shows that tail risk pressing against the ceiling has clearly receded.

But a falling ratio does not equal shrinking mortgages. Per the FSC, the home-purchase loan balance at end-May 2026 was NT$11.69 trillion, up NT$37.1 billion month on month and 4.31% year on year (mainly as banks supported first-time buyers and unit-split loans in line with policy); the mortgage non-performing balance that month-end was NT$8.85 billion, a mortgage NPL ratio of 0.08% (same as April), while the construction-loan balance was NT$3.89 trillion, down NT$900 million month on month and up 1.13% year on year, with a construction-loan NPL ratio of 0.05% (CNA #1231865). [F3] A record-low ratio alongside a still-growing mortgage balance confirms Chang's point that "the ratio's fall mainly comes from a larger denominator (deposits)," not a shrinking absolute amount of loans.

The statistical basis is also shaped by New Youth Housing Loan policy. Per the FSC, the government excluded New Youth Housing Loan cases disbursed on or after September 1, 2025 from the Article 72-2 cap, to address young borrowers' lack of quota at state-owned banks; the FSC tallied total New Youth exclusions of NT$209.7 billion from September 2025 to May 2026 (CNA #1231865). [F4] Exclusions exceeding NT$200 billion mean the current 24.37% ratio already embeds a policy-driven basis adjustment.

The lending-flow side: Q1 new mortgages down 26.5%, April still falling

Shifting the lens from "stock ratio" to "new flow," the volume contraction is just as clear. Per the central bank, Taiwan's Q1 2026 new mortgages at the five major banks (Bank of Taiwan, Taiwan Cooperative Bank, First Bank, Hua Nan Bank and Land Bank) were NT$152.554 billion, down NT$54.996 billion from Q1 2025 and 26.5% year on year, the lowest first quarter in three years; central bank officials said the housing market had cooled and remained in a consolidation pattern (CNA #187594). [F5] New mortgages falling more than a quarter to a three-year low is the most direct slice of the curbs' effect on "new lending."

Transaction volume showed a bottoming signal as the decline narrowed. Per central bank Economic Research Department Deputy Director-General Yeh Sheng, the market overheated in 2024, prompting the central bank's seventh wave of selective credit controls; the market began cooling in 2025, and Q1 2026 showed signs of bottoming—building-transfer transactions in the six special municipalities fell 2.15% year on year in Q1 2026, a clearly narrowing decline no longer in double digits, with March up 0.4% year on year (CNA #187594). [F6] Narrowing from double-digit declines to single digits, and turning positive in March, is a signal that transaction volume has entered a "post-overshoot stabilization" phase.

Even after the small easing, volume did not rebound. Per the central bank, April 2026 new mortgages at the five major banks were NT$53.336 billion, down NT$5.688 billion month on month; Deputy Director-General Yeh Sheng noted that April building-transfer transactions in the six municipalities fell 14.2% month on month, with shrinking volume dragging down new mortgages (CNA #459499). [F7] Even after the central bank slightly eased the second-home loan-to-value cap in March, April lending and transactions both weakened, showing that the small adjustment did not reverse market sentiment.

The other side of the coin: lower volume, but still-sticky prices

Volume is falling, but prices have barely dropped. Per central bank Deputy Director-General Yeh Sheng, the Sinyi house-price index reached a record 181.36 in April 2026; Yeh described Greater Taipei home prices as sticky and hard to mark down, but with limited upside, and the market as one of contracting volume with sticky, flat prices (CNA #459499). [F8] Falling volume coexisting with record prices is precisely the hallmark of a "soft landing" rather than a "hard crash."

The easing of the burden side is only "gradual." Per the central bank's 20th Financial Stability Report, the nationwide mortgage burden ratio fell quarter by quarter from a Q3 2024 peak of 46.8% to 40.75% in Q4 2025; yet among the six municipalities, all but Taoyuan and Tainan exceeded 40%, with Taipei City highest at 63.92%, showing that home-purchase burdens eased gradually but remain heavy (CNA #575184). [F9] A burden ratio falling from 46.8% to 40.75% is progress, but Taipei City's above-60% ratio shows "affordability" is still far from a typical household.

Transaction volume and supply pressure are written into the same report. Per the central bank's 20th Financial Stability Report, 2025 nationwide building-transfer transactions were 261,000 units, down 25.45% year on year; unsold new homes rose from over 100,000 units in Q4 2023 to 112,100 units in Q2 2025, and with expanding new-home supply, high prices and weaker-than-expected sales, the unsold-new-home overhang could rise and warrants close watch (CNA #575184). [F10] Transactions down more than a quarter, with over 110,000 unsold new homes, is the structural pressure of "lower volume" and a "supply backlog" existing at once.

The policy side: Yang Chin-long cites three reasons to hold the line for now

Facing lower volume and flat prices, the central bank chose to stand pat. Per the central bank's June 2026 (Q2) board meeting, rates were held—a "ninth straight hold"—and housing controls were not eased, with all board members unanimously keeping the selective credit controls; Governor Yang Chin-long said outright that domestic home-price correction is limited and that, with New Youth Housing Loan 2.0 about to launch and needing time to assess, controls would not be eased for now (CNA #1099667). [F11] Continuing the previous hold, this time a "ninth straight hold" and a unanimous decision not to ease, the policy resolve is clear.

Yang laid out three reasons not to ease. Per the governor: first, although the share of real-estate loans in total bank lending (real-estate loan concentration) fell from a peak of 37.6% at end-June 2024 to 35.2% at end-May 2026, the money is flowing into the stock market rather than the productive economy the central bank hopes for; second, domestic home-price correction is limited and home-purchase burdens remain heavy, with Taiwan posting the largest cumulative home-price gain among major economies since the pandemic and a high price-to-income ratio; third, attention must be paid to the possible impact on the market of real-estate-related policy such as the imminent New Youth Housing Loan 2.0 (CNA #1099667). [F12] Concentration is down yet money flows into stocks—this is the central bank's core worry against easing: that loosening would send funds back into housing.

The market read is relatively upbeat. Per Sinyi Realty research manager Tseng Ching-te, the market is "lower volume, flat prices" and broadly soft-landing. Colliers International director Huang Shu-wei said that after about 18 months of credit controls, the market has gradually shifted from "liquidity-expansion pricing" to "credit-constraint pricing," with future pricing power returning to purchasing power and real demand. CTBC Realty deputy manager Chuang Szu-min held that investment and speculative demand have all but vanished since the seventh wave of controls and the market has returned to owner-occupier demand; with strong Taiwan stocks and the launch of New Youth Housing Loan 2.0, "the most pessimistic moment has passed," and second-half transactions could recover mildly from the first half (CNA #1099235). [F13] The realtors' "worst is over" and the central bank's "no easing for now" are not contradictory—the former speaks to a bottoming of market psychology, the latter to an unchanged policy stance.

A panorama of the "lower volume, flat prices" soft landing

Threading the six reports together, the picture of Taiwan's housing market is quite clear:

The credit controls pushed down "volume" and "concentration" but could not bring "prices" down meaningfully—this is the core tension of this round of Taiwan's housing soft landing: volume has soft-landed, while prices are still consolidating at high altitude.

Risk factors

FAQ

Q: Are Taiwan's central bank housing credit controls actually working? What is the hardest evidence?

The hardest evidence is the FSC's "real-estate lending ratio": as of end-May 2026 this ratio at 36 domestic banks fell to 24.37%, a 12th straight monthly decline and the lowest since January 2011, a 15-year-plus low. At the same time, the central bank reported Q1 2026 new mortgages at the five major banks of NT$152.554 billion, down 26.5% year on year, the lowest first quarter in three years.

Per the FSC, as of end-May 2026 the Banking Act Article 72-2 real-estate lending ratio at 36 domestic banks (excluding the Land Bank and Export-Import Bank) averaged 24.37%, a 12th straight monthly decline and the lowest since January 2011, with Banking Bureau Deputy Director-General Chang Chia-kui attributing it mainly to growth in total deposits enlarging the denominator. The central bank reported Q1 2026 new mortgages at the five major banks of NT$152.554 billion, down NT$54.996 billion from Q1 2025 and 26.5% year on year, the lowest first quarter in three years. The central bank's 20th Financial Stability Report showed 2025 nationwide building-transfer transactions of 261,000 units, down 25.45% (CNA #1231865, CNA #187594, CNA #575184).

Q: With volume contraction this clear, why have home prices not fallen meaningfully yet?

Because "volume softens first, prices stay sticky later." Per a central bank official, the Sinyi house-price index hit a record 181.36 in April 2026, and Greater Taipei home prices are sticky and hard to mark down. The nationwide mortgage burden ratio fell from a Q3 2024 peak of 46.8% to 40.75% in Q4 2025, but Taipei City was still 63.92%, so home-purchase burdens eased gradually yet remain heavy.

Per central bank Deputy Director-General Yeh Sheng, the Sinyi house-price index reached a record 181.36 in April 2026; he described Greater Taipei home prices as sticky and hard to mark down with limited upside, and the market as one of contracting volume with sticky, flat prices. The central bank's 20th Financial Stability Report noted the nationwide mortgage burden ratio fell from a Q3 2024 peak of 46.8% to 40.75% in Q4 2025, but among the six municipalities all but Taoyuan and Tainan exceeded 40%, with Taipei City highest at 63.92%, so the burden eased gradually yet remains heavy; 2025 nationwide building-transfer transactions were 261,000 units, down 25.45%, and unsold new homes rose from over 100,000 units in Q4 2023 to 112,100 units in Q2 2025 (CNA #459499, CNA #575184).

Q: Why is Governor Yang Chin-long not easing housing controls for now?

At the June 2026 board meeting Yang cited three reasons: first, real-estate loan concentration fell from 37.6% at end-June 2024 to 35.2% at end-May 2026, but the money is flowing into the stock market rather than the productive economy; second, domestic home-price correction is limited and purchase burdens remain heavy, with Taiwan posting the largest cumulative home-price gain among major economies since the pandemic; third, the impact of the imminent New Youth Housing Loan 2.0 must be assessed.

At the central bank's June 2026 (Q2) board meeting, rates were held for a "ninth straight meeting," housing controls were not eased, and all board members unanimously kept the selective credit controls. Yang laid out three reasons: real-estate loans as a share of total lending (concentration) fell from a peak of 37.6% at end-June 2024 to 35.2% at end-May 2026 but money flows into stocks; domestic home-price correction is limited and the price-to-income ratio is high, with Taiwan's cumulative gain the largest among major economies since the pandemic; and the possible market impact of New Youth Housing Loan 2.0 must be watched. He said "assessment also takes time" and would not ease controls for now (CNA #1099667).

Q: Why is the real-estate lending ratio at a new low while the home-purchase loan balance is still growing?

Because the ratio's fall mainly comes from a larger "denominator (deposits)," not a shrinking "numerator (mortgages)." The FSC states plainly that the May 2026 real-estate lending ratio's fall to 24.37% was driven mainly by growth in total deposits, while that month's home-purchase loan balance was still NT$11.69 trillion, up 4.31% year on year.

Per the FSC, as of end-May 2026 the real-estate lending ratio was 24.37%, a 12th straight monthly decline, with Banking Bureau Deputy Director-General Chang Chia-kui attributing it mainly to growth in total deposits (from large time deposits of mid-to-large enterprises, state-run firms and the post office) enlarging the denominator and pushing the ratio down. That month-end the home-purchase loan balance was NT$11.69 trillion, up NT$37.1 billion month on month and 4.31% year on year (as banks supported first-time buyers and unit-split loans), with a mortgage NPL ratio of 0.08%; the construction-loan balance was NT$3.89 trillion, down NT$900 million month on month and up 1.13% year on year. In addition, New Youth Housing Loan disbursements on or after September 1, 2025 are excluded from the Article 72-2 cap, with exclusions reaching NT$209.7 billion from September 2025 to May 2026, also affecting the ratio's basis (CNA #1231865).

Q: How do realtors see the housing market? Does it contradict the central bank?

No. Realtors see the "worst" as over after about 18 months of credit controls, with the market having shifted from "liquidity-expansion pricing" to "credit-constraint pricing" and returned to owner-occupier demand. The central bank speaks to policy resolve—no easing for now. The former is a bottoming of market psychology, the latter an unchanged policy stance.

Per Sinyi Realty's Tseng Ching-te, the market is "lower volume, flat prices" and broadly soft-landing, though the central bank's focus has shifted to the personal-credit-expansion risk from surging Taiwan stocks. Colliers International's Huang Shu-wei said that after about 18 months of controls the market shifted from "liquidity-expansion pricing" to "credit-constraint pricing," with pricing power returning to purchasing power and real demand. CTBC Realty's Chuang Szu-min held that investment and speculative demand have all but vanished since the seventh wave of controls and the market has returned to owner-occupier demand; with strong Taiwan stocks and the launch of New Youth Housing Loan 2.0, "the most pessimistic moment has passed," and second-half transactions could recover mildly from the first half (CNA #1099235).

F-Units

F-001: As of end-May 2026, the Banking Act Article 72-2 real-estate lending ratio at 36 domestic banks (excluding the Land Bank and Export-Import Bank) averaged 24.37%, a 12th straight monthly decline and the lowest since January 2011, a 15-year-plus low, driven mainly by growth in total deposits enlarging the denominator - source: CNA #1231865 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202606250353.aspx - confidence: high - basis: official_statement - period: 2026-05 - caveat: FSC statistics and Banking Bureau Deputy Director-General Chang Chia-kui's explanation, relayed by CNA; the fall is driven by deposits (denominator), not a shrinking absolute loan amount

F-002: Banking Act Article 72-2 limits commercial banks' total residential- and corporate-construction lending to no more than 30% (three-tenths) of deposits and financial bonds outstanding; as of end-May 2026, banks at 29% and above and in the 28%-29% band numbered zero, with three banks in the 27%-28% band - source: CNA #1231865 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202606250353.aspx - confidence: high - basis: official_statement - period: 2026-05 - caveat: FSC explanation of the Article 72-2 "real-estate lending ceiling" statutory cap and ratio distribution, relayed by CNA

F-003: The end-May 2026 home-purchase loan balance was NT$11.69 trillion, up NT$37.1 billion month on month and 4.31% year on year; mortgage NPLs were NT$8.85 billion, a mortgage NPL ratio of 0.08%; the construction-loan balance was NT$3.89 trillion, down NT$900 million month on month and up 1.13% year on year, with a construction-loan NPL ratio of 0.05% - source: CNA #1231865 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202606250353.aspx - confidence: high - basis: official_statement - period: 2026-05 - caveat: FSC statistics and Banking Bureau Deputy Director-General Chang Chia-kui's explanation, relayed by CNA

F-004: The government excludes New Youth Housing Loan cases disbursed on or after September 1, 2025 from the Banking Act Article 72-2 cap; the FSC tallied total New Youth exclusions of NT$209.7 billion from September 2025 to May 2026 - source: CNA #1231865 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202606250353.aspx - confidence: high - basis: official_statement - period: 2025-09 to 2026-05 - caveat: FSC statistics relayed by CNA; the exclusions affect the statistical basis of the real-estate lending ratio

F-005: Per the central bank, Q1 2026 new mortgages at the five major banks (Bank of Taiwan, Taiwan Cooperative Bank, First Bank, Hua Nan Bank, Land Bank) were NT$152.554 billion, down NT$54.996 billion from Q1 2025 and 26.5% year on year, the lowest first quarter in three years - source: CNA #187594 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202604220335.aspx - confidence: high - basis: official_statement - period: 2026-Q1 - caveat: Central bank five-major-bank new-lending statistics relayed by CNA; central bank officials said the market cooled and stayed in consolidation

F-006: Central bank Economic Research Department Deputy Director-General Yeh Sheng noted that the central bank launched a seventh wave of selective credit controls in 2024; in Q1 2026 building-transfer transactions in the six municipalities fell 2.15% year on year, a narrowing decline no longer in double digits, with March up 0.4% year on year, a bottoming signal - source: CNA #187594 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202604220335.aspx - confidence: high - basis: official_statement - period: 2026-Q1 - caveat: Central bank Economic Research Department Deputy Director-General Yeh Sheng's explanation, relayed by CNA

F-007: Per the central bank, April 2026 new mortgages at the five major banks were NT$53.336 billion, down NT$5.688 billion month on month; central bank official Yeh Sheng noted April building-transfer transactions in the six municipalities fell 14.2% month on month, with shrinking volume dragging down new mortgages - source: CNA #459499 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202605210303.aspx - confidence: high - basis: official_statement - period: 2026-04 - caveat: Central bank statistics and Economic Research Department Deputy Director-General Yeh Sheng's explanation, relayed by CNA; the central bank had raised the second-home loan-to-value cap from 50% to 60% in March

F-008: The Sinyi house-price index reached a record 181.36 in April 2026; central bank official Yeh Sheng described Greater Taipei home prices as sticky and hard to mark down with limited upside, and the market as one of contracting volume with sticky, flat prices - source: CNA #459499 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202605210303.aspx - confidence: medium - basis: news_aggregation - period: 2026-04 - caveat: The Sinyi house-price index is a private index cited by central bank Deputy Director-General Yeh Sheng and relayed by CNA

F-009: Per the central bank's 20th Financial Stability Report, the nationwide mortgage burden ratio fell quarter by quarter from a Q3 2024 peak of 46.8% to 40.75% in Q4 2025; among the six municipalities, all but Taoyuan and Tainan exceeded 40%, with Taipei City highest at 63.92%, so purchase burdens eased gradually but remain heavy - source: CNA #575184 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202605290281.aspx - confidence: high - basis: official_statement - period: 2025-Q4 - caveat: Central bank 20th Financial Stability Report, relayed by CNA

F-010: Per the central bank's 20th Financial Stability Report, 2025 nationwide building-transfer transactions were 261,000 units, down 25.45% year on year; unsold new homes rose from over 100,000 units in Q4 2023 to 112,100 units in Q2 2025, and the unsold-new-home overhang could rise - source: CNA #575184 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202605290281.aspx - confidence: high - basis: official_statement - period: 2025 - caveat: Central bank 20th Financial Stability Report, relayed by CNA

F-011: The central bank's June 2026 (Q2) board meeting held rates—a ninth straight hold—did not ease housing controls, and unanimously kept the selective credit controls; Governor Yang Chin-long said home-price correction is limited and New Youth Housing Loan 2.0's launch needs time to assess, so controls would not ease for now - source: CNA #1099667 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202606180340.aspx - confidence: high - basis: official_statement - period: 2026-06 - caveat: Central bank Q2 board decision and Governor Yang Chin-long's press remarks, relayed by CNA; the "ninth straight hold" count is per CNA #1099235

F-012: Governor Yang Chin-long noted that real-estate loans as a share of total bank lending (real-estate loan concentration) fell from a peak of 37.6% at end-June 2024 to 35.2% at end-May 2026, but money is flowing into the stock market rather than the productive economy; Taiwan has the largest cumulative home-price gain among major economies since the pandemic and a high price-to-income ratio - source: CNA #1099667 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202606180340.aspx - confidence: high - basis: official_statement - period: 2026-05 - caveat: Governor Yang Chin-long's explanation, relayed by CNA; real-estate loan concentration and the FSC's Article 72-2 real-estate lending ratio are different-basis indicators

F-013: Realtors' interpretations: Sinyi Realty's Tseng Ching-te called the market "lower volume, flat prices" and soft-landing; Colliers International's Huang Shu-wei said after about 18 months of controls the market shifted from "liquidity-expansion pricing" to "credit-constraint pricing"; CTBC Realty's Chuang Szu-min said investment and speculative demand have all but vanished since the seventh wave of controls and the worst is over - source: CNA #1099235 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202606180328.aspx - confidence: medium - basis: news_aggregation - period: 2026-06 - caveat: Post-meeting interpretations by Sinyi Realty, Colliers International and CTBC Realty, relayed by CNA; market views, not official statistics

J-Units

J-001: Quantitative evidence that credit controls pushed down "volume" and "concentration" lines up—the FSC real-estate lending ratio at 24.37% fell for a 12th straight month to a 15-year-plus low, the central bank's Q1 five-major-bank new mortgages fell 26.5% to a three-year low, 2025 building-transfer transactions fell 25.45%, and real-estate loan concentration moved 37.6%→35.2% - confidence: high - basis_f_units: F-001, F-005, F-010, F-012

J-002: Volume contracts but "prices" stay sticky and burdens remain heavy—the Sinyi house-price index hit a record 181.36 in April 2026, the mortgage burden ratio fell from a Q3 2024 peak of 46.8% to 40.75% in Q4 2025 but Taipei City was still 63.92%, and unsold new homes rose to 112,100 units; a soft landing in which "volume softens first, prices stay sticky later," not a crash - confidence: high - basis_f_units: F-006, F-008, F-009, F-010

J-003: Policy holds the line for now and the risk focus spills over—the central bank held rates a ninth straight meeting and unanimously kept the credit controls, with Yang citing three reasons (limited price correction, money into stocks, watching New Youth Housing Loan 2.0); realtors say that after 18 months of controls the market shifted from liquidity-expansion pricing to credit-constraint pricing and the worst is over - confidence: medium - basis_f_units: F-011, F-012, F-013

P-Units

P-001: The sustainability of the soft landing—the fall in the real-estate lending ratio and concentration partly reflects a larger denominator (deposits) rather than shrinking mortgages (the May 2026 home-purchase loan balance of NT$11.69 trillion was still up 4.31% year on year), and price correction is limited; whether the lower-volume, flat-price pattern holds if a liquidity rally or New Youth Housing Loan 2.0 reignites needs verification from later building-transfer transactions and the house-price index - status: open

P-002: The two-sidedness of New Youth Housing Loan 2.0—New Youth disbursements are excluded from the Article 72-2 cap (exclusions of NT$209.7 billion from September 2025 to May 2026) and already depress the statistical ratio; whether 2.0's launch re-runs the 1.0 housing boom is one main reason the central bank holds the line for now, an in-progress policy whose ultimate impact needs watching - status: open

P-003: The spillover risk of money flowing into stocks rather than the productive economy—Yang noted money is flowing into the stock market, and the central bank's focus has shifted in part from housing-loan concentration to the personal-credit-expansion risk of surging Taiwan stocks; credit controls may suppress housing while pushing funds into other assets, and the spillover effect needs tracking - status: open

Three Perspectives on the Same Event / 同事件・三視角 / 同一イベント・三つの視点

Internal Citation Chain

Published ANK-Docs cited in this article: - ANK-2026-06-23-003 (AI Redraws Taiwan's Trade Map: the pivot to the US and concentration risk) → The two cards complement each other on the "2026 Taiwan liquidity rally" axis: ANK-2026-06-23-003 looks at how AI/semiconductor capital flows into Taiwan's trade and orders. This card looks at the other end—how, under credit controls, "money flows into the stock market rather than housing, and not into the productive economy" (Yang Chin-long). The same wave of money is seen by the trade card as flowing into exports and manufacturing, and by the housing card as bypassing housing toward stocks. The two are two faces of "where did the money go." - ANK-2026-06-25-009 (Taiwan's record machinery exports vs. a 40-year-low yen: a competitiveness scissors) → Complementary on the "2026 Taiwan macro cycle" axis: the machinery-export card looks at external demand and exchange-rate competitiveness, while this card looks at domestic-demand housing and the cooling on the financial-supervision side. The two contrast Taiwan's cycle as "hot outside (exports) vs. cold inside (housing)."

Sources

1. [CNA #187594] CNA, "Curbs work: Q1 new mortgages hit a three-year low for the period", 2026-04-22. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202604220335.aspx 2. [CNA #459499] CNA, "After the central bank's small easing the housing market keeps consolidating; April new mortgages at the five major banks fall", 2026-05-21. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202605210303.aspx 3. [CNA #575184] CNA, "Central bank: Q4 mortgage burden ratio eases but the public's burden stays heavy", 2026-05-29. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202605290281.aspx 4. [CNA #1099235] CNA, "Central bank holds rates a ninth straight meeting and keeps credit controls; realtors: the worst is over", 2026-06-18. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202606180328.aspx 5. [CNA #1099667] CNA, "Yang Chin-long: the price decline is still gradual, watching New Youth Housing Loan 2.0, no easing of controls for now", 2026-06-18. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202606180340.aspx 6. [CNA #1231865] CNA, "May real-estate lending ratio 24.37%, a 12th straight monthly decline and a 15-year low", 2026-06-25. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202606250353.aspx 7. [ANK-2026-06-23-003] Rin Takenouchi, "AI Redraws Taiwan's Trade Map: the pivot to the US and concentration risk", 2026-06-28. https://ainews.washinmura.jp/ainews/en/ank/ANK-2026-06-23-003 8. [ANK-2026-06-25-009] Rin Takenouchi, "Taiwan's record machinery exports vs. a 40-year-low yen: a competitiveness scissors", 2026-06-25. https://ainews.washinmura.jp/ainews/en/ank/ANK-2026-06-25-009

📊 引用級事實單元（F-Units）

As of end-May 2026, the Banking Act Article 72-2 real-estate lending ratio at 36 domestic banks (excluding the Land Bank and Export-Import Bank) averaged 24.37%, a 12th straight monthly decline and the lowest since January 2011, a 15-year-plus low, driven mainly by growth in total deposits enlarging the denominator
F-001 · Confidence: high · Basis: official_statement CNA #1231865 2026-05
Banking Act Article 72-2 limits commercial banks' total residential- and corporate-construction lending to no more than 30% (three-tenths) of deposits and financial bonds outstanding; as of end-May 2026, banks at 29% and above and in the 28%-29% band numbered zero, with three banks in the 27%-28% band
F-002 · Confidence: high · Basis: official_statement CNA #1231865 2026-05
The end-May 2026 home-purchase loan balance was NT$11.69 trillion, up NT$37.1 billion month on month and 4.31% year on year; mortgage NPLs were NT$8.85 billion, a mortgage NPL ratio of 0.08%; the construction-loan balance was NT$3.89 trillion, down NT$900 million month on month and up 1.13% year on year, with a construction-loan NPL ratio of 0.05%
F-003 · Confidence: high · Basis: official_statement CNA #1231865 2026-05
The government excludes New Youth Housing Loan cases disbursed on or after September 1, 2025 from the Banking Act Article 72-2 cap; the FSC tallied total New Youth exclusions of NT$209.7 billion from September 2025 to May 2026
F-004 · Confidence: high · Basis: official_statement CNA #1231865 2025-09 to 2026-05
Per the central bank, Q1 2026 new mortgages at the five major banks (Bank of Taiwan, Taiwan Cooperative Bank, First Bank, Hua Nan Bank, Land Bank) were NT$152.554 billion, down NT$54.996 billion from Q1 2025 and 26.5% year on year, the lowest first quarter in three years
F-005 · Confidence: high · Basis: official_statement CNA #187594 2026-Q1
Central bank Economic Research Department Deputy Director-General Yeh Sheng noted that the central bank launched a seventh wave of selective credit controls in 2024; in Q1 2026 building-transfer transactions in the six municipalities fell 2.15% year on year, a narrowing decline no longer in double digits, with March up 0.4% year on year, a bottoming signal
F-006 · Confidence: high · Basis: official_statement CNA #187594 2026-Q1
Per the central bank, April 2026 new mortgages at the five major banks were NT$53.336 billion, down NT$5.688 billion month on month; central bank official Yeh Sheng noted April building-transfer transactions in the six municipalities fell 14.2% month on month, with shrinking volume dragging down new mortgages
F-007 · Confidence: high · Basis: official_statement CNA #459499 2026-04
The Sinyi house-price index reached a record 181.36 in April 2026; central bank official Yeh Sheng described Greater Taipei home prices as sticky and hard to mark down with limited upside, and the market as one of contracting volume with sticky, flat prices
F-008 · Confidence: medium · Basis: news_aggregation CNA #459499 2026-04
Per the central bank's 20th Financial Stability Report, the nationwide mortgage burden ratio fell quarter by quarter from a Q3 2024 peak of 46.8% to 40.75% in Q4 2025; among the six municipalities, all but Taoyuan and Tainan exceeded 40%, with Taipei City highest at 63.92%, so purchase burdens eased gradually but remain heavy
F-009 · Confidence: high · Basis: official_statement CNA #575184 2025-Q4
Per the central bank's 20th Financial Stability Report, 2025 nationwide building-transfer transactions were 261,000 units, down 25.45% year on year; unsold new homes rose from over 100,000 units in Q4 2023 to 112,100 units in Q2 2025, and the unsold-new-home overhang could rise
F-010 · Confidence: high · Basis: official_statement CNA #575184 2025
The central bank's June 2026 (Q2) board meeting held rates—a ninth straight hold—did not ease housing controls, and unanimously kept the selective credit controls; Governor Yang Chin-long said home-price correction is limited and New Youth Housing Loan 2.0's launch needs time to assess, so controls would not ease for now
F-011 · Confidence: high · Basis: official_statement CNA #1099667 2026-06
Governor Yang Chin-long noted that real-estate loans as a share of total bank lending (real-estate loan concentration) fell from a peak of 37.6% at end-June 2024 to 35.2% at end-May 2026, but money is flowing into the stock market rather than the productive economy; Taiwan has the largest cumulative home-price gain among major economies since the pandemic and a high price-to-income ratio
F-012 · Confidence: high · Basis: official_statement CNA #1099667 2026-05
Realtors' interpretations: Sinyi Realty's Tseng Ching-te called the market "lower volume, flat prices" and soft-landing; Colliers International's Huang Shu-wei said after about 18 months of controls the market shifted from "liquidity-expansion pricing" to "credit-constraint pricing"; CTBC Realty's Chuang Szu-min said investment and speculative demand have all but vanished since the seventh wave of controls and the worst is over
F-013 · Confidence: medium · Basis: news_aggregation CNA #1099235 2026-06

❓ FAQ

Are Taiwan's central bank housing credit controls actually working? What is the hardest evidence?

The hardest evidence is the FSC's "real-estate lending ratio": as of end-May 2026 this ratio at 36 domestic banks fell to 24.37%, a 12th straight monthly decline and the lowest since January 2011, a 15-year-plus low. At the same time, the central bank reported Q1 2026 new mortgages at the five major banks of NT$152.554 billion, down 26.5% year on year, the lowest first quarter in three years. Per the FSC, as of end-May 2026 the Banking Act Article 72-2 real-estate lending ratio at 36 domestic banks (excluding the Land Bank and Export-Import Bank) averaged 24.37%, a 12th straight monthly decline and the lowest since January 2011, with Banking Bureau Deputy Director-General Chang Chia-kui attributing it mainly to growth in total deposits enlarging the denominator. The central bank reported Q1 2026 new mortgages at the five major banks of NT$152.554 billion, down NT$54.996 billion from Q1 2025 and 26.5% year on year, the lowest first quarter in three years. The central bank's 20th Financial Stability Report showed 2025 nationwide building-transfer transactions of 261,000 units, down 25.45% (CNA #1231865, CNA #187594, CNA #575184).

With volume contraction this clear, why have home prices not fallen meaningfully yet?

Because "volume softens first, prices stay sticky later." Per a central bank official, the Sinyi house-price index hit a record 181.36 in April 2026, and Greater Taipei home prices are sticky and hard to mark down. The nationwide mortgage burden ratio fell from a Q3 2024 peak of 46.8% to 40.75% in Q4 2025, but Taipei City was still 63.92%, so home-purchase burdens eased gradually yet remain heavy. Per central bank Deputy Director-General Yeh Sheng, the Sinyi house-price index reached a record 181.36 in April 2026; he described Greater Taipei home prices as sticky and hard to mark down with limited upside, and the market as one of contracting volume with sticky, flat prices. The central bank's 20th Financial Stability Report noted the nationwide mortgage burden ratio fell from a Q3 2024 peak of 46.8% to 40.75% in Q4 2025, but among the six municipalities all but Taoyuan and Tainan exceeded 40%, with Taipei City highest at 63.92%, so the burden eased gradually yet remains heavy; 2025 nationwide building-transfer transactions were 261,000 units, down 25.45%, and unsold new homes rose from over 100,000 units in Q4 2023 to 112,100 units in Q2 2025 (CNA #459499, CNA #575184).

Why is Governor Yang Chin-long not easing housing controls for now?

At the June 2026 board meeting Yang cited three reasons: first, real-estate loan concentration fell from 37.6% at end-June 2024 to 35.2% at end-May 2026, but the money is flowing into the stock market rather than the productive economy; second, domestic home-price correction is limited and purchase burdens remain heavy, with Taiwan posting the largest cumulative home-price gain among major economies since the pandemic; third, the impact of the imminent New Youth Housing Loan 2.0 must be assessed. At the central bank's June 2026 (Q2) board meeting, rates were held for a "ninth straight meeting," housing controls were not eased, and all board members unanimously kept the selective credit controls. Yang laid out three reasons: real-estate loans as a share of total lending (concentration) fell from a peak of 37.6% at end-June 2024 to 35.2% at end-May 2026 but money flows into stocks; domestic home-price correction is limited and the price-to-income ratio is high, with Taiwan's cumulative gain the largest among major economies since the pandemic; and the possible market impact of New Youth Housing Loan 2.0 must be watched. He said "assessment also takes time" and would not ease controls for now (CNA #1099667).

Why is the real-estate lending ratio at a new low while the home-purchase loan balance is still growing?

Because the ratio's fall mainly comes from a larger "denominator (deposits)," not a shrinking "numerator (mortgages)." The FSC states plainly that the May 2026 real-estate lending ratio's fall to 24.37% was driven mainly by growth in total deposits, while that month's home-purchase loan balance was still NT$11.69 trillion, up 4.31% year on year. Per the FSC, as of end-May 2026 the real-estate lending ratio was 24.37%, a 12th straight monthly decline, with Banking Bureau Deputy Director-General Chang Chia-kui attributing it mainly to growth in total deposits (from large time deposits of mid-to-large enterprises, state-run firms and the post office) enlarging the denominator and pushing the ratio down. That month-end the home-purchase loan balance was NT$11.69 trillion, up NT$37.1 billion month on month and 4.31% year on year (as banks supported first-time buyers and unit-split loans), with a mortgage NPL ratio of 0.08%; the construction-loan balance was NT$3.89 trillion, down NT$900 million month on month and up 1.13% year on year. In addition, New Youth Housing Loan disbursements on or after September 1, 2025 are excluded from the Article 72-2 cap, with exclusions reaching NT$209.7 billion from September 2025 to May 2026, also affecting the ratio's basis (CNA #1231865).

How do realtors see the housing market? Does it contradict the central bank?

No. Realtors see the "worst" as over after about 18 months of credit controls, with the market having shifted from "liquidity-expansion pricing" to "credit-constraint pricing" and returned to owner-occupier demand. The central bank speaks to policy resolve—no easing for now. The former is a bottoming of market psychology, the latter an unchanged policy stance. Per Sinyi Realty's Tseng Ching-te, the market is "lower volume, flat prices" and broadly soft-landing, though the central bank's focus has shifted to the personal-credit-expansion risk from surging Taiwan stocks. Colliers International's Huang Shu-wei said that after about 18 months of controls the market shifted from "liquidity-expansion pricing" to "credit-constraint pricing," with pricing power returning to purchasing power and real demand. CTBC Realty's Chuang Szu-min held that investment and speculative demand have all but vanished since the seventh wave of controls and the market has returned to owner-occupier demand; with strong Taiwan stocks and the launch of New Youth Housing Loan 2.0, "the most pessimistic moment has passed," and second-half transactions could recover mildly from the first half (CNA #1099235). ---

🧠 編輯判斷（J-Units）

Quantitative evidence that credit controls pushed down "volume" and "concentration" lines up—the FSC real-estate lending ratio at 24.37% fell for a 12th straight month to a 15-year-plus low, the central bank's Q1 five-major-bank new mortgages fell 26.5% to a three-year low, 2025 building-transfer transactions fell 25.45%, and real-estate loan concentration moved 37.6%→35.2%
Confidence: high · Based on: F-001, F-005, F-010, F-012
Volume contracts but "prices" stay sticky and burdens remain heavy—the Sinyi house-price index hit a record 181.36 in April 2026, the mortgage burden ratio fell from a Q3 2024 peak of 46.8% to 40.75% in Q4 2025 but Taipei City was still 63.92%, and unsold new homes rose to 112,100 units; a soft landing in which "volume softens first, prices stay sticky later," not a crash
Confidence: high · Based on: F-006, F-008, F-009, F-010
Policy holds the line for now and the risk focus spills over—the central bank held rates a ninth straight meeting and unanimously kept the credit controls, with Yang citing three reasons (limited price correction, money into stocks, watching New Youth Housing Loan 2.0); realtors say that after 18 months of controls the market shifted from liquidity-expansion pricing to credit-constraint pricing and the worst is over
Confidence: medium · Based on: F-011, F-012, F-013

🔮 待驗證假設（P-Units）

The sustainability of the soft landing—the fall in the real-estate lending ratio and concentration partly reflects a larger denominator (deposits) rather than shrinking mortgages (the May 2026 home-purchase loan balance of NT$11.69 trillion was still up 4.31% year on year), and price correction is limited; whether the lower-volume, flat-price pattern holds if a liquidity rally or New Youth Housing Loan 2.0 reignites needs verification from later building-transfer transactions and the house-price index
Status: open
The two-sidedness of New Youth Housing Loan 2.0—New Youth disbursements are excluded from the Article 72-2 cap (exclusions of NT$209.7 billion from September 2025 to May 2026) and already depress the statistical ratio; whether 2.0's launch re-runs the 1.0 housing boom is one main reason the central bank holds the line for now, an in-progress policy whose ultimate impact needs watching
Status: open
The spillover risk of money flowing into stocks rather than the productive economy—Yang noted money is flowing into the stock market, and the central bank's focus has shifted in part from housing-loan concentration to the personal-credit-expansion risk of surging Taiwan stocks; credit controls may suppress housing while pushing funds into other assets, and the spillover effect needs tracking
Status: open

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