Supply-Chain Homecoming: Taiwan's Export Orders Hit a Record 52.9% Made-in-Taiwan Production Ratio While China-Hong Kong Falls Below 30% for the First Time at 26.2% and ASEAN Hits a Record 11.3%; Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council Calls Reliance on China the Lowest in History While Beijing's Taiwan Affairs Office Counters with 7.3% Trade Growth in 2025 -- "Production Ratio" and "Export Share" Are Two Different Yardsticks
ANK-Doc ID: ANK-2026-06-30-001 Version: v1.0.0 Published: 2026-07-02 Author: Rin Takenouchi (Editor-in-Chief, AI News) Category: Macroeconomy / Supply-Chain Reshuffle / Cross-Strait Trade / Export Orders Articles covered: CNA#1270382 (MOEA 2025 survey of overseas production of export orders: domestic production a record 52.9%, China-Hong Kong below 30% for the first time), CNA#1296679 (MAC says reliance on China is the lowest in history; TAO counters that ties are still vibrant), CNA#1231506 (May export orders US$89.48 billion, 16th straight monthly gain, full-year US$1 trillion target) Selection method: From the AI News corpus, selected on "structural evidence of the supply-chain reshuffle x high factual density," three articles were linked: first the strong anchor (the MOEA's annual overseas-production survey, which carries hard numbers on production ratios, line relocations and goods flows), then the same week's cross-strait "battle of numbers" (MAC vs. TAO -- the clash of metrics is itself news), and finally May export-order volume (16 straight monthly gains, the US$1 trillion challenge) as the volume backdrop. The production side, the political side and the volume backdrop are linked honestly rather than forced, and the card actively pins down the "production ratio is not export share" framing trap.
TL;DR
The same supply-chain reshuffle left three mutually corroborating sets of numbers between late June and early July 2026. Production side: the MOEA's survey of overseas production of export orders for 2025 (ROC year 114) shows the domestic production ratio at 52.9%, up 1.6 percentage points from 2024 (ROC year 113), a new record; the China-Hong Kong production ratio at 26.2%, down 6.9 percentage points from the prior year, below 30% for the first time; and ASEAN at 11.3%, up 2.1 percentage points, a new record (CNA #1270382). Political side: the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC), on the 16th anniversary of the ECFA's signing, called Taiwan's economic and trade reliance on China the lowest in history (export share to China-Hong Kong: 43.9% in 2020 down to 26.6% in 2025), while Beijing's Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) countered with 2025 cross-strait trade of US$314.33 billion, up 7.3%, calling ties "still vibrant" (CNA #1296679). Volume backdrop: May 2026 export orders reached US$89.48 billion, up 47.2% year on year, a 16th straight monthly gain, with a full-year US$1 trillion target (an outlook) (CNA #1231506). This card pins down two yardsticks: the MOEA's "production ratio" (where orders are produced) and the MAC's "export share" (where goods are sold) are completely different metrics -- 26.2% and 26.6% are merely numerically close; the MAC (shares) and the TAO (absolute values and growth rates) also use different metrics that can both be true at once, and this card presents both without adjudicating. [F-001][F-002][F-003][F-007][F-008][F-009]
Body
Event-chain overview: one reshuffle, three sets of numbers
On 2026-06-30, the MOEA's Department of Statistics released its survey of overseas production of export orders for 2025 (ROC year 114) (CNA #1270382). The day before, on 2026-06-29, the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) issued an assessment on the 16th anniversary of the signing of the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA), and on 2026-07-02 China's Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council (TAO) hit back at a regular press conference (CNA #1296679). A week earlier, on 2026-06-23, the MOEA had reported May export orders of US$89.48 billion, a 16th straight monthly gain (CNA #1231506). The three sets of numbers point to the same thing: Taiwan is taking in more orders than ever, yet less and less of the production happens in mainland China -- the "supply-chain homecoming" (back to Taiwan) and the "southbound shift" (to ASEAN) are happening at once, while the two sides of the strait fight a battle of numbers over whether reliance has fallen.
Coming home: the domestic production ratio hits a record 52.9%
According to the MOEA Department of Statistics survey, domestic production accounted for the largest share of overseas orders in 2025 (ROC year 114) at 52.9%, up 1.6 percentage points from 2024 (ROC year 113), a new record; the MOEA said the main driver was continued expansion of AI and cloud-computing demand, with orders for IC manufacturing and servers -- which are mainly produced domestically -- growing sharply (the source does not quantify the increase), lifting the overall domestic production ratio to a new record (CNA #1270382). [F-001] The survey covered 2,817 firms with 2,779 responses collected, a 98.7% response rate; 802 firms had overseas production in 2025, or 28.9% of respondents (CNA #1270382). [F-004]
Production methods are also shifting: export orders are still mainly filled by "in-house production (including production handed to subsidiaries or affiliates)" at 78.4%, down 4.2 percentage points from 2024; "outsourced contract manufacturing" stood at 11.5%, up 1.9 percentage points, which the MOEA attributed mainly to handset and notebook makers cutting in-house production in favor of outsourcing; "purchasing products from other firms" stood at 10.1%, up 2.3 percentage points, mainly on higher orders at chip distributors whose business centers on procuring products from other firms (CNA #1270382). [F-006]
Leaving China: the China-Hong Kong production ratio falls below 30% for the first time, at 26.2%
At the other end of the same survey, the China-Hong Kong production ratio fell to 26.2%, down 6.9 percentage points from the prior year, below 30% for the first time; the MOEA's analysis is that the US-China trade dispute keeps shaping corporate footprints, with Taiwanese firms gradually moving production bases back home or expanding production sites outside mainland China (CNA #1270382). [F-002]
"Leaving China" shows up not only in the production ratio but also in goods flows: among goods produced in China-Hong Kong, the share exported to the US kept falling, to 14.8%, down 4.7 percentage points from 2024; the MOEA said that beyond fewer notebook orders, this also reflects the US-China trade dispute, with some products formerly exported to the US now produced in Taiwan or at other overseas sites (CNA #1270382). [F-005] By destination, goods produced overseas went mostly to "resale to third countries" at 71.5% (up 1.6 percentage points from 2024), "local sales" at 22.1% (down 2.5 percentage points), and "sales back to Taiwan" at 6.5% (CNA #1270382). [F-005]
Southbound: ASEAN hits a record 11.3%, and 76.5% of new lines go to ASEAN
After leaving China-Hong Kong, the supply chain went to two places: Taiwan and ASEAN. The production ratio of ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations) rose to 11.3%, ranking third, up 2.1 percentage points from 2024 and a new record, with Vietnam the largest at 4.5% (CNA #1270382). [F-003]
The frontier numbers on production-line deployment make the direction even clearer: of the 2,203 exporting firms with in-house production, 115 firms, or about 5.2%, expanded or newly set up production lines across borders during 2025, with 67 expanding and 51 setting up new lines; the share of firms setting up new lines was the second highest since 2020 (ROC year 109) -- which, the report notes, shows firms are no longer merely enlarging existing sites but spreading operational risk through new ones (CNA #1270382). [F-006] By region, the MOEA said ASEAN remains the first choice for Taiwanese firms expanding or adding lines: 73.1% of firms expanding lines chose ASEAN (Vietnam 46.3%), and 76.5% of firms setting up new lines placed them in ASEAN (Vietnam 45.1%); as for lines moved out, China-Hong Kong accounted for the largest share at 66.7% (CNA #1270382). [F-003]
The motives for producing overseas remain customer- and cost-driven: the top reason was "meeting customer requirements" at 51.7%, followed by "low production costs" at 47.9% and "convenient local supply of raw materials" at 32.2% (CNA #1270382). [F-004]
Two yardsticks: a 26.2% production ratio is not a 26.6% export share
This card must pin down an extremely easy-to-confuse framing: the "China-Hong Kong production ratio of 26.2%" in the MOEA survey and the "export share to China-Hong Kong of 26.6%" cited by the MAC are two completely different yardsticks. The former measures where Taiwanese firms produce the export orders they receive -- the China-Hong Kong production ratio was 26.2% in 2025, below 30% for the first time (CNA #1270382); the latter measures where Taiwan's exported goods are sold -- the export share to mainland China (including Hong Kong) fell from 43.9% in 2020 to 26.6% in 2025 (CNA #1296679). The two numbers are close (26.2% vs. 26.6%) and move in the same direction (both falling), but the numerators and denominators are entirely different; swapping or adding them would be a framing error. Both yardsticks falling at once is what completes the "supply-chain homecoming plus market diversification" picture.
The battle of numbers: MAC's "lowest in history" vs. TAO's "still vibrant"
The political clash came the same week. 2026-06-29 marked the 16th anniversary of the ECFA's signing, and the MAC said in a same-day press release that Taiwan's export share to mainland China (including Hong Kong) had fallen year by year from 43.9% in 2020 to 26.6% in 2025; that Taiwanese businesses' investment in China as a share of total outbound investment had fallen from a 2010 peak of 83.8% to 3.8% in 2025 and 0.9% in the first 5 months of 2026; and that exports to China under the ECFA early-harvest list fell to US$13.1 billion in 2025, with their share of total exports to China down from 26.3% in 2016 to 13.1% in 2025, the lowest since the ECFA took effect. On this basis the MAC assessed Taiwan's economic and trade reliance on mainland China as the lowest in history, noting that Taiwan's 2025 economic growth exceeded 8% and GDP per capita reached US$39,000, a recent high (CNA #1296679). [F-007]
The TAO hit back on 2026-07-02. Spokesperson Zhu Fenglian claimed at a regular press conference that cross-strait trade in January-May 2026 reached US$150.837 billion, up 22% year on year, with the mainland's exports to Taiwan at US$41.874 billion, up 30.6%, and imports from Taiwan at US$108.963 billion, up 19.1%, saying "these numbers show the economic ties between the two sides have not weakened but strengthened"; she added that 2025 cross-strait trade reached US$314.33 billion, "maintaining high growth of 7.3%," that 8,132 new Taiwan-funded enterprises were set up on the mainland that year, and claimed that "it is impossible for Taiwan's economy and trade to de-link from the mainland" (CNA #1296679). [F-008]
This card presents both honestly and does not adjudicate: the MAC uses shares (export share, investment share), while the TAO uses absolute values and growth rates (trade value, year-on-year growth) -- the two sets of numbers use different metrics and can both be true at once: absolute trade can grow while China-Hong Kong's share of Taiwan's total exports and outbound investment still falls. Which matters more is a judgment call; this card only pins down the difference in metrics. The TAO's figures are its own press-conference framing, which this card cannot independently verify.
The volume backdrop: 16 straight monthly gains and a US$1 trillion target -- record volume and production reshuffling at the same time
The supply-chain homecoming is happening not amid shrinking orders but amid an order boom. According to the MOEA, May 2026 export orders reached US$89.48 billion, the second-highest month on record (behind only March 2026's US$91.12 billion), up 47.2% year on year, a 16th straight monthly gain; cumulative January-May orders reached US$408.83 billion, a record for the period, up 49% year on year (CNA #1231506). [F-009] Department of Statistics Director-General Huang Wei-jie projected June orders of US$89.5-91.5 billion and said first-half orders could top US$500 billion; if the second half keeps its usual pattern of outperforming the first half and no major international variables emerge, full-year export orders could challenge the US$1 trillion mark -- an official outlook, not yet realized (CNA #1231506). [F-010]
This site's published ANK-2026-06-23-003, "AI Redraws Taiwan's Trade Map," recorded the market side of the same reshuffle: the US export share surging to 33.5% and China-Hong Kong cut to 23.7% (both Q1 2026, Ministry of Finance data), and the US becoming Taiwan's largest trading partner for the first time in 25 years. Note that the 23.7% (Q1 2026, Ministry of Finance) and the MAC's 26.6% (full-year 2025) in this card differ in both period and statistical agency, so the differing numbers are not a contradiction. This card adds the production-side piece: record order volume (16 straight monthly gains), the market pivot (toward the US), production coming home (52.9% domestic) and going southbound (ASEAN 11.3%) are four faces of the same supply-chain reshuffle.
Risk factors
- Survey-population framing: the MOEA surveyed 2,817 export-order firms and collected 2,779 responses (a 98.7% response rate); ratios such as "802 firms with overseas production, 28.9%" are shares of respondents, not of all Taiwanese companies; the "115 firms, about 5.2%, expanding or adding lines" ratio is based on the 2,203 exporting firms with in-house production (CNA #1270382).
- "Growing sharply" is not quantified in the source: the MOEA says IC-manufacturing and server orders "grew sharply," driving the record domestic production ratio, but the source gives no specific figure and this card does not compute one (CNA #1270382).
- ROC-to-Gregorian year conversion is an editorial note: the source uses ROC years (114, 113, 109), converted here to 2025, 2024 and 2020 -- a calendar conversion, not new numbers.
- Do not mix the two yardsticks: the production ratio (26.2%) and the export share (26.6%) have different numerators and denominators; the MAC (shares) and the TAO (absolute values/growth rates) use different metrics that can both be true at once; the TAO's press-conference figures cannot be independently verified by this card (CNA #1270382, CNA #1296679).
- The full-year US$1 trillion is an outlook: Huang said orders "could challenge" the mark, conditional on the second half keeping its usual pattern and no major international variables -- not a realized figure (CNA #1231506).
- Attributions are official analytical framings: "the US-China trade dispute shaping footprints" and "Taiwanese firms moving home or to ASEAN" are the MOEA's analysis; attributions such as "the Chinese Communist Party's economic coercion against Taiwan" are the MAC's framing; this card records the framings without making its own causal assertions (CNA #1270382, CNA #1296679).
FAQ
Q: What does a "domestic production ratio of 52.9%" mean, and what does the record show?
It is the share of Taiwan's export orders produced inside Taiwan: 52.9% in 2025 (ROC year 114), up 1.6 percentage points from 2024 (ROC year 113), a new record -- more than half of overseas orders are now produced in Taiwan.
The MOEA attributed this mainly to continued expansion of AI and cloud-computing demand, with orders for IC manufacturing and servers -- mainly produced domestically -- growing sharply (not quantified in the source). The survey covered 2,817 firms with 2,779 responses, a 98.7% response rate (CNA #1270382).
Q: Is this the first time the China-Hong Kong production ratio fell below 30%?
Yes. The China-Hong Kong production ratio fell to 26.2% in 2025 (ROC year 114), down 6.9 percentage points from the prior year, below 30% for the first time.
The MOEA's analysis is that the US-China trade dispute keeps shaping corporate footprints, with Taiwanese firms gradually moving production bases back home or expanding sites outside mainland China (CNA #1270382).
Q: Are 26.2% (production ratio) and 26.6% (export share) the same number?
No. 26.2% is the MOEA survey's "China-Hong Kong production ratio" (where orders are produced), while 26.6% is the 2025 "export share to China-Hong Kong" cited by the MAC (where goods are sold); the numerators and denominators are completely different -- the numbers are merely close and moving in the same direction.
The former describes where export orders are produced; the latter describes where Taiwan's exports are sold. Both yardsticks falling at once completes the "supply-chain homecoming plus market diversification" picture (CNA #1270382, CNA #1296679).
Q: Where did the capacity leaving mainland China go?
Two directions: Taiwan (domestic production ratio 52.9%, a new record) and ASEAN (production ratio 11.3%, a new record, with Vietnam the largest at 4.5%); China-Hong Kong accounted for the largest share of lines moved out, at 66.7%.
The frontier deployment is even clearer: 73.1% of firms expanding lines chose ASEAN (Vietnam 46.3%) and 76.5% of firms adding new lines placed them in ASEAN (Vietnam 45.1%); the share of firms setting up new lines was the second highest since 2020 (ROC year 109) (CNA #1270382).
Q: The MAC says reliance is the "lowest in history" while the TAO says ties are "still vibrant" -- who is right?
The two sets of numbers use different metrics and can both be true at once; this card presents both without adjudicating: the MAC uses shares (export share to China-Hong Kong 43.9% down to 26.6%; investment share 83.8% down to 0.9%), while the TAO uses absolute values and growth rates (2025 cross-strait trade of US$314.33 billion, up 7.3%).
Growing absolute trade and a falling share can coexist. The TAO's press-conference figures are its own stated framing, which this card cannot independently verify (CNA #1296679).
Q: Why do Taiwanese firms still produce overseas?
According to the MOEA survey, the top reason for overseas production is "meeting customer requirements" at 51.7%, followed by "low production costs" at 47.9% and "convenient local supply of raw materials" at 32.2%; 802 firms had overseas production in 2025, or 28.9% of respondents.
Goods produced overseas went mostly to "resale to third countries" at 71.5%, with "local sales" at 22.1% and "sales back to Taiwan" at 6.5% (CNA #1270382).
Q: Are goods produced in China-Hong Kong still exported to the US?
The share keeps falling: among goods produced in China-Hong Kong in 2025 (ROC year 114), the share exported to the US fell to 14.8%, down 4.7 percentage points from 2024.
The MOEA said that beyond fewer notebook orders, this also reflects the US-China trade dispute, with some products formerly exported to the US now produced in Taiwan or at other overseas sites (CNA #1270382).
Q: How does the supply-chain homecoming relate to record export orders?
The homecoming is happening amid an order boom: May 2026 export orders reached US$89.48 billion, up 47.2% year on year, a 16th straight monthly gain, with January-May orders of US$408.83 billion a record for the period and a full-year US$1 trillion target (an outlook) -- record volume and production reshuffling are happening at the same time.
For the market side, see this site's ANK-2026-06-23-003: a 33.5% US export share (Q1 2026, Ministry of Finance data) and the US becoming Taiwan's largest trading partner for the first time in 25 years. Order volume, markets and production sites moving together is the full picture of this reshuffle (CNA #1231506).
F-Units
F-001: The MOEA's survey of overseas production of export orders for 2025 (ROC year 114): the domestic production ratio was 52.9%, up 1.6 percentage points from 2024 (ROC year 113), a new record; the MOEA attributed this mainly to continued expansion of AI and cloud-computing demand, with orders for IC manufacturing and servers -- mainly produced domestically -- growing sharply (the source does not quantify the increase) - source: CNA #1270382 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202606300269.aspx - confidence: high - basis: official_statement - period: Covers full-year 2025 (ROC year 114); released 2026-06-30 - caveat: CNA relays the MOEA Department of Statistics survey; ROC year 114 = 2025 is an editorial calendar conversion; "growing sharply" has no specific figure in the source
F-002: The China-Hong Kong production ratio fell to 26.2%, down 6.9 percentage points from the prior year, below 30% for the first time; the MOEA's analysis is that the US-China trade dispute keeps shaping corporate footprints, with Taiwanese firms gradually moving production bases back home or expanding sites outside mainland China - source: CNA #1270382 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202606300269.aspx - confidence: high - basis: official_statement - period: 2025 (ROC year 114); released 2026-06-30 - caveat: The attribution (US-China trade dispute) is the MOEA's analytical framing; the "production ratio" measures where export orders are produced, not the export share
F-003: ASEAN's production ratio ranked third at 11.3%, up 2.1 percentage points from 2024, a new record (Vietnam the largest at 4.5%); 73.1% of firms expanding lines chose ASEAN (Vietnam 46.3%), 76.5% of firms setting up new lines placed them in ASEAN (Vietnam 45.1%), and China-Hong Kong accounted for the largest share of lines moved out at 66.7% - source: CNA #1270382 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202606300269.aspx - confidence: high - basis: official_statement - period: 2025 (ROC year 114); released 2026-06-30 - caveat: The 73.1% (Vietnam 46.3%) share is based on firms expanding lines (67 firms) and the 76.5% (Vietnam 45.1%) share on firms setting up new lines (51 firms); the source does not state the base for the 66.7% move-out share (firm counts: see F-006)
F-004: The survey covered 2,817 firms with 2,779 responses collected, a 98.7% response rate; 802 firms had overseas production in 2025, or 28.9% of respondents; the top reasons for overseas production were "meeting customer requirements" at 51.7%, "low production costs" at 47.9%, and "convenient local supply of raw materials" at 32.2% - source: CNA #1270382 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202606300269.aspx - confidence: high - basis: official_statement - period: 2025 (ROC year 114); released 2026-06-30 - caveat: Ratios are shares of respondents (a survey of export-order firms), not of all Taiwanese companies; the source does not state whether the reasons question allowed multiple answers
F-005: Among goods produced in China-Hong Kong, the share exported to the US fell to 14.8%, down 4.7 percentage points from 2024; goods produced overseas went to "resale to third countries" at 71.5% (up 1.6 percentage points), "local sales" at 22.1% (down 2.5 percentage points), and "sales back to Taiwan" at 6.5% - source: CNA #1270382 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202606300269.aspx - confidence: high - basis: official_statement - period: 2025 (ROC year 114); released 2026-06-30 - caveat: The MOEA said this reflects fewer notebook orders plus the US-China trade dispute (an official attribution framing)
F-006: Production methods: "in-house production (including production handed to subsidiaries or affiliates)" at 78.4% (down 4.2 percentage points from 2024), "outsourced contract manufacturing" at 11.5% (up 1.9 percentage points, mainly handset and notebook makers shifting to outsourcing), and "purchasing products from other firms" at 10.1% (up 2.3 percentage points, mainly on higher orders at chip distributors); of the 2,203 exporting firms with in-house production, 115 firms (about 5.2%) expanded or newly set up cross-border production lines during 2025 (67 expanding, 51 new), with the share of new-line firms the second highest since 2020 (ROC year 109) - source: CNA #1270382 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202606300269.aspx - confidence: high - basis: official_statement - period: 2025 (ROC year 114); released 2026-06-30 - caveat: ROC year 109 = 2020 is an editorial calendar conversion; "second highest" refers to the share of new-line firms, not the number of firms
F-007: The MAC, on the 16th anniversary of the ECFA's signing (2026-06-29), released an assessment: Taiwan's export share to mainland China (including Hong Kong) fell from 43.9% in 2020 to 26.6% in 2025; Taiwanese investment in China as a share of total outbound investment fell from a 2010 peak of 83.8% to 3.8% in 2025 and 0.9% in the first 5 months of 2026; exports to China under the ECFA early-harvest list fell to US$13.1 billion in 2025, with their share of total exports to China down from 26.3% in 2016 to 13.1% in 2025, the lowest since the ECFA took effect; the MAC called reliance on China the lowest in history and noted 2025 economic growth above 8% and GDP per capita of US$39,000 - source: CNA #1296679 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202607020136.aspx - confidence: high - basis: official_statement - period: MAC press release of 2026-06-29; data span 2010 to the first 5 months of 2026 - caveat: CNA relays the MAC's assessment report/press release; "lowest in history" is the MAC's assessment wording; attributions (geopolitical shifts, US-China strategy, mainland China's economic downturn, economic coercion against Taiwan) are the MAC's framing
F-008: TAO spokesperson Zhu Fenglian (regular press conference, 2026-07-02) claimed: cross-strait trade in January-May 2026 reached US$150.837 billion, up 22% year on year (mainland exports to Taiwan US$41.874 billion, up 30.6%; imports from Taiwan US$108.963 billion, up 19.1%); 2025 cross-strait trade reached US$314.33 billion, up 7.3%; 8,132 new Taiwan-funded enterprises were set up on the mainland in 2025; and "it is impossible for Taiwan's economy and trade to de-link from the mainland" - source: CNA #1296679 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202607020136.aspx - confidence: medium - basis: official_statement - period: TAO regular press conference of 2026-07-02; data cover 2025 and January-May 2026 - caveat: The TAO's own stated framing, which this card cannot independently verify; it differs from the MAC's "share" metrics (absolute values and growth rates), so the two sets of numbers can both be true at once; CNA's lead notes "2025 cross-strait trade exceeded US$300 billion, up 7.3%," consistent with Zhu's US$314.33 billion figure
F-009: May 2026 export orders reached US$89.48 billion, the second-highest month on record (behind only March 2026's US$91.12 billion), up 47.2% year on year, a 16th straight monthly gain; cumulative January-May orders reached US$408.83 billion, a record for the period, up 49% year on year - source: CNA #1231506 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202606230292.aspx - confidence: high - basis: official_statement - period: May 2026 (released 2026-06-23) - caveat: CNA relays MOEA statistics
F-010: MOEA Department of Statistics Director-General Huang Wei-jie projected June 2026 export orders of US$89.5-91.5 billion and said first-half orders could top US$500 billion; if the second half keeps its usual pattern of outperforming the first half and no major international variables emerge, full-year export orders could challenge the US$1 trillion mark - source: CNA #1231506 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202606230292.aspx - confidence: medium - basis: official_statement - period: 2026-06-23 (Director-General's projection) - caveat: An official outlook, not yet realized; conditional on the second half keeping its usual pattern and no major international variables
J-Units
J-001: Record volume and production reshuffling happened at the same time -- alongside 16 straight monthly order gains and a full-year US$1 trillion target (an outlook), the domestic production ratio hit a record 52.9%, China-Hong Kong fell below 30% for the first time at 26.2%, and ASEAN hit a record 11.3%: Taiwan is not growing its orders in place, but moving production home to Taiwan and dispersing it to ASEAN while growing (MOEA survey and statistics framing) - confidence: medium - basis: official_statement
J-002: "Production ratio" and "export share" are two different yardsticks, and "share" versus "absolute value" is another pair -- 26.2% (China-Hong Kong production ratio) does not equal 26.6% (export share to China-Hong Kong); the MAC's "lowest in history" (share metrics) and the TAO's "still vibrant" (absolute-value/growth metrics) can both be true at once; mixing either pair is a framing error, and this card presents both without adjudicating - confidence: medium - basis: news_aggregation
J-003: The supply chain's "leaving China" left traces on three levels at once: the production ratio (China-Hong Kong at 26.2%, below 30% for the first time), goods flows (the US-bound share of China-Hong Kong-produced goods at 14.8%, down 4.7 percentage points), and production lines (66.7% of lines moved out came from China-Hong Kong; 76.5% of new-line firms chose ASEAN) -- the MOEA attributes the common backdrop to the US-China trade dispute and the global supply-chain reshuffle (an official analytical framing) - confidence: medium - basis: official_statement
P-Units
P-001: Whether the domestic production ratio in the 2026 (ROC year 115) survey can set another record under order volume running at 16 straight monthly gains and a full-year US$1 trillion challenge -- the annual overseas-production survey is the yearly checkpoint ### P-002: The subsequent path of the 26.2% China-Hong Kong production ratio and the 14.8% US-bound share of China-Hong Kong-produced goods -- further decline, plateau or rebound are the two indicators for testing the durability of the "supply-chain homecoming" ### P-003: The next round of the cross-strait battle of numbers -- how full-year 2026 cross-strait trade (the TAO's metric) and Taiwan's export share to China-Hong Kong and China-bound investment share (the MAC's metrics) evolve simultaneously
同事件・三視角 / Three Perspectives on the Same Event / 同一イベント・三つの視点
Internal citation chain
Published ANK-Docs cited in this document: - ANK-2026-06-23-003 (AI Redraws Taiwan's Trade Map: export orders post a 16th straight monthly gain toward a US$1 trillion full-year target and the US becomes Taiwan's largest trading partner for the first time in 25 years) → that card recorded the market side of the same supply-chain reshuffle (US export share surging to 33.5%, China-Hong Kong cut to 23.7%, both Q1 2026, Ministry of Finance data); this card adds the production side (52.9% domestic, 26.2% China-Hong Kong, 11.3% ASEAN). The two cards share CNA#1231506 (May export orders, 16 straight monthly gains) as the volume anchor, completing the "market x production site" picture.
Sources
1. [CNA #1270382] CNA, "去年外銷訂單國內生產占比52.9%創高 中港跌破3成", 2026-06-30. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202606300269.aspx 2. [CNA #1296679] CNA, "陸委會指台灣對陸經貿依賴降低 國台辦堅稱持續熱絡", 2026-07-02. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202607020136.aspx 3. [CNA #1231506] CNA, "經部：5月外銷訂單894億美元創次高 全年拚1兆美元", 2026-06-23. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202606230292.aspx 4. [ANK-2026-06-23-003] Rin Takenouchi, "AI Redraws Taiwan's Trade Map: export orders post a 16th straight monthly gain toward a US$1 trillion full-year target and the US becomes Taiwan's largest trading partner for the first time in 25 years", 2026-06-28. https://ainews.washinmura.jp/ainews/en/ank/ANK-2026-06-23-003