"AI Redraws Taiwan's Trade Map: export orders post a 16th straight monthly gain toward a US$1 trillion full-year target and the US becomes Taiwan's largest trading partner for the first time in 25 years, with the US export share at 33.5% and China-HK down to 23.7% in Q1 2026, but the concentration in chips (about 70% of US imports from Taiwan) and Trump's Section 301 tariff are two sides of the same coin"

TL;DR: The same AI/semiconductor capex super-cycle is redrawing Taiwan's entire trade map. On the volume side, the Ministry of Economic Affairs reported May 2026 export orders of US$89.48 billion, the second-highest single month, up 47.2% year on year and a 16th consecutive monthly gain (lian-16-hong); January-May orders totaled US$408.83 billion, a record for the period, up 49%, and statistics chief Huang Wei-chieh said first-half orders could top US$500 billion and the full year could challenge US$1 trillion, with the ministry calling AI a "buffer and moat." On the structural side, per Ministry of Finance data, Taiwan's share of exports to the US rose from 11.8% in Q1 2018 to 33.5% in Q1 2026 (up 21.7 points) while the China-HK share fell from 41.3% to 23.7% (down 17.6 points); the US became Taiwan's largest trading partner for the first time in 25 years, at 23.1% of Taiwan's total trade in Q1 2026, and South Korea overtook Japan from 2025 to become Taiwan's third-largest partner. But the other side of the coin is concentration and policy risk: about 70% of US imports from Taiwan in 2026 are chips and related components (only 20% in 2020), and the US Commerce Department has proposed a 10% Section 301 tariff on Taiwan and 14 countries over forced labor. Taiwan is reaping the dividend of the pivot to the US on AI, even as it puts ever more eggs into the single basket of "the US" and "chips."

AI Redraws Taiwan's Trade Map: export orders post a 16th straight monthly gain toward a US$1 trillion full-year target and the US becomes Taiwan's largest trading partner for the first time in 25 years, with the US export share at 33.5% and China-HK down to 23.7% in Q1 2026, but the concentration in chips (about 70% of US imports from Taiwan) and Trump's Section 301 tariff are two sides of the same coin

ANK-Doc ID: ANK-2026-06-23-003 Version: v1.0.0 Published: 2026-06-28 Author: Rin Takenouchi (AI News Editor-in-Chief) Category: Macroeconomics / Trade / De-China Supply-Chain Realignment / Taiwan-US Relations Articles Covered: CNA#1231506 (May export orders US$89.48bn; toward US$1tn full year), CNA#176964 (March export orders at a record; AI is the moat), CNA#87463 (March exports US$80.18bn, a single-month record), CNA#87491 (US export share to 33.5%; US becomes largest trading partner), CNA#1089798 (about 70% of US imports from Taiwan are chips; double-taxation), CNA#659800 (US 10% Section 301 tariff not stacked with Section 122) Selection Method: From the AI News corpus, six articles were chained around "the AI/semiconductor super-cycle × Taiwan's trade-map pivot to the US and de-China realignment"—first the strong lead (the Ministry of Economic Affairs' May export orders of US$89.48bn, lian-16-hong, US$1tn full-year, carrying its own hard numbers on order value, consecutive months and shares), then the export side (March exports US$80.18bn, a single-month record) and the hardest structural backbone (Ministry of Finance data: US share 11.8%→33.5%, China-HK 41.3%→23.7%, US the largest partner for the first time in 25 years), and finally the concentration risk on the flip side (about 70% of US imports from Taiwan are chips; Trump's Section 301 tariff). The "volume strength" and "concentration risk" are shown honestly via official statistics, with no fabricated individual orders.

TL;DR

The AI/semiconductor super-cycle is redrawing Taiwan's entire trade map. On the volume side, the Ministry of Economic Affairs reported May 2026 export orders of US$89.48 billion, the second-highest single month, up 47.2% year on year and a 16th straight monthly gain (lian-16-hong); January-May orders totaled US$408.83 billion, a record for the period, up 49%, with the statistics agency noting first-half orders could top US$500 billion and the full year could challenge US$1 trillion, and AI called a "buffer and moat." On the structural side, per Ministry of Finance data, Taiwan's US export share rose from 11.8% in Q1 2018 to 33.5% in Q1 2026 (up 21.7 points) while China-HK fell from 41.3% to 23.7% (down 17.6 points); the US became Taiwan's largest trading partner for the first time in 25 years, and South Korea overtook Japan from 2025 to become the third-largest partner. But the flip side is concentration and policy risk: about 70% of US imports from Taiwan are chips and related components (only 20% in 2020), and the US has proposed a 10% Section 301 tariff on Taiwan and 14 countries over forced labor. Taiwan is reaping the pivot-to-US dividend on AI even as it puts ever more eggs into the single basket of "the US" and "chips." [F1][F3][F4][F5][F6][F7][F9][F11]

Main Text

The volume side: export orders post a 16th straight monthly gain, toward US$1 trillion

The starting point of this realignment is a demand-side surge. Per the Ministry of Economic Affairs, Taiwan's May 2026 export orders reached US$89.48 billion, the second-highest single month ever (after March 2026's US$91.12 billion), up 47.2% year on year and a 16th straight monthly gain (lian-16-hong); January-May 2026 orders totaled US$408.83 billion, a record for the period, up 49% year on year (CNA #1231506). [F1] A 16th straight monthly gain, with over US$400 billion accumulated in five months, shows this is a structural order wave rather than a single-month blip.

The main engine of the order wave is AI. Per the ministry, May 2026 electronics orders reached US$37.24 billion, a single-month record, up 61.2% year on year, and ICT-product orders reached US$32.37 billion, up 67.2%, as the AI wave lifted cloud, server, IC-manufacturing and memory demand (CNA #1231506). The two leading categories rising on AI in both price and volume, driven mainly by volume, is direct evidence of AI compute demand flowing into Taiwan's order books.

The ministry set a trillion-dollar goal. Per statistics chief Huang Wei-chieh, June 2026 export orders are forecast at US$89.5-91.5 billion, first-half orders could top US$500 billion, and if the second half keeps its usual seasonal edge over the first and there are no major international shocks, full-year export orders could challenge the US$1 trillion mark (CNA #1231506). [F2] The US$1 trillion full-year figure is an official outlook rather than a realized number, but the first-half scale above US$500 billion has already paved half the road to that goal.

AI is the moat: orders hit records even under the shadow of war

The backbone of the volume strength is AI's position in the global supply chain. Per the ministry, Taiwan's March 2026 export orders reached US$91.12 billion, a single-month record, up 65.9% year on year, a 14th straight monthly gain, with January-March orders of US$231.91 billion, up 50%; the statistics agency said that while other countries face slowdown pressure under the shadow of Middle East conflict, Taiwan can stay "outside the fray" precisely because it plays a key role in the global AI supply chain—"AI is the buffer and moat" (CNA #176964). [F3] Calling AI the "moat" is the authorities effectively admitting that Taiwan's trade resilience is highly tied to a single trend.

The export side hit records at the same time. Per the Ministry of Finance, Taiwan's March 2026 exports reached US$80.18 billion, a single-month record, up 61.8% year on year, with imports of US$58.91 billion, also a single-month record, up 38.3%, and a trade surplus of US$21.27 billion; January-March exports totaled US$195.74 billion, up 51.1% (CNA #87463). [F4] Exports and orders hitting records together is the same AI demand confirmed at both ends—"realized shipments" and "orders in hand."

The structural side: the US becomes Taiwan's largest trading partner for the first time in 25 years

Pulling the lens from single-month figures to the structure of the map, the change is even more dramatic. Per Ministry of Finance statistics chief Tsai Mei-na, Taiwan's US export share rose from 11.8% in Q1 2018 to 33.5% in Q1 2026 (up 21.7 points); the China-HK export share fell from 41.3% to 23.7% (down 17.6 points); and the Japan export share also fell 2.4 points over Q1 2018 to Q1 2026 (CNA #87491). [F6] The US share nearly tripling in eight years and China-HK nearly halving is the most dramatic plate shift in Taiwan's trade map in recent years.

The plate shift rewrote the ranking of trading partners. Per the Ministry of Finance, in Q1 2026 the US accounted for 23.1% of Taiwan's total trade, the highest first-quarter level in nearly 28 years, and the US became Taiwan's largest trading partner for the first time in 25 years; the China-HK share fell from 31.2% to 21.8%, a low for the first quarter in 24 years (CNA #87491). [F7] The US becoming Taiwan's largest trading partner is a first in 25 years, and that "first" is itself a milestone of de-China and supply-chain realignment.

The single-month US figures confirm it too. Per the Ministry of Finance, Taiwan's March 2026 exports to the US reached US$28.54 billion, up 1.2-fold year on year, dwarfing other major markets, with a US surplus of US$23.38 billion, a record (CNA #87491). [F5] Exports to the US more than doubling and the surplus hitting a record is the most direct single-month slice of the "pivot to the US."

A Taiwan-Japan subplot: South Korea overtakes Japan as Taiwan's third-largest partner

This realignment also quietly rewrote the Taiwan-Japan-Korea positions. Per the Ministry of Finance, South Korea overtook Japan from 2025 to become Taiwan's third-largest trading partner, with Korea at 8.2% of Taiwan's trade in Q1 2026, the highest first-quarter level on record, reflecting tighter Taiwan-Korea semiconductor ties; over the same period Taiwan's Japan export share kept falling (CNA #87491). [F8] In this semiconductor-centered realignment, Taiwan and Korea are increasingly bound by chips while Japan recedes—an easily overlooked subplot of Taiwan-Japan economic ties.

The order side shows the same Taiwan-Japan contrast. Per the ministry, Taiwan's May 2026 orders from the US reached US$36.39 billion, a single-month record, up 63.9%, leading all order regions; orders from Japan were US$3.76 billion, up 29.1%, helped by memory and IC-manufacturing and packaging-testing demand (CNA #1231506). [F10] Orders from both the US and Japan are growing, but the center of gravity in scale and momentum is clearly on the US side.

The flip side: concentration in chips, about 70% of US imports from Taiwan

The bigger the pivot-to-US dividend, the higher the concentration risk. At a forum of the Washington think tank Global Taiwan Institute (GTI), former US Deputy Assistant Trade Representative Fred Fischer noted that about 70% of US imports from Taiwan in 2026 are chips and components directly related to chips, a share that was only about 20% in 2020; Taiwan is the fifth-largest source of US imports (CNA #1089798). [F9] US exports leaning ever more on the single basket of chips, with the chip share jumping from two-tenths to seven-tenths in about six years (2020 to 2026), means Taiwan's US trade is heavily betting on a single category.

Policy risk is another undercurrent. Per the Ministry of Economic Affairs, the US Commerce Department has proposed a 10% tariff on Taiwan and 14 countries under Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act over forced labor; however, the current Section 122 will expire and go to zero on July 24, 2026, and Section 301 will replace it, so Section 122 and Section 301 will not stack, and Taiwan, already an economy that has reached an agreement with the US, has a relative advantage and should not be treated unfairly (CNA #659800). [F11] The tariff threat was assessed by the ministry as "non-stacking, with a relative advantage," but it is a reminder that this highway to the US is not without toll booths.

Two sides of the same coin

Bundling the six reports together, this is not six independent statistics but the two faces of the same "AI-driven trade-map realignment":

Taiwan has reaped the trade-map dividend of the pivot to the US on AI, even as it puts ever more eggs into the same single basket of "the US" and "chips"—volume strength and concentration are two sides of the same coin of Taiwan's trade in this super-cycle.

Risk Factors

FAQ

Q: Just how strong are Taiwan's 2026 export orders?

The Ministry of Economic Affairs reported May 2026 export orders of US$89.48 billion, the second-highest single month, up 47.2% year on year and a 16th straight monthly gain (lian-16-hong), with January-May orders at a record US$408.83 billion, up 49%; the statistics agency said first-half orders could top US$500 billion and the full year could challenge US$1 trillion.

Per the ministry, Taiwan's May 2026 export orders reached US$89.48 billion, the second-highest single month ever, up 47.2% year on year, lian-16-hong; January-May orders totaled US$408.83 billion, a record for the period, up 49%. The main driver was the AI wave lifting electronics (orders of US$37.24 billion, up 61.2%, a single-month record) and ICT products (US$32.37 billion, up 67.2%). Statistics chief Huang Wei-chieh said first-half orders could top US$500 billion and, if seasonality holds and there are no major shocks, the full year could challenge US$1 trillion (CNA #1231506).

Q: Why is the US now Taiwan's largest trading partner, and how big is the change?

Because Ministry of Finance data show Taiwan's US export share rose from 11.8% in Q1 2018 to 33.5% in Q1 2026 (up 21.7 points), China-HK fell from 41.3% to 23.7% (down 17.6 points), and the US became Taiwan's largest trading partner for the first time in 25 years, at 23.1% of total trade in Q1 2026.

Per Ministry of Finance statistics chief Tsai Mei-na, AI opportunities, US-China economic confrontation, and de-China and supply-chain realignment reshaped Taiwan's trade map. The US export share rose from 11.8% to 33.5% over Q1 2018 to Q1 2026, China-HK fell from 41.3% to 23.7%, and Japan fell 2.4 points. In total trade, in Q1 2026 the US accounted for 23.1% of Taiwan's trade, the highest first-quarter level in nearly 28 years, becoming the largest partner for the first time in 25 years; the China-HK share fell from 31.2% to 21.8%, a 24-year first-quarter low. South Korea overtook Japan from 2025 as Taiwan's third-largest partner (CNA #87491).

Q: What products is Taiwan's US-bound trade concentrated in, and how much?

In chips. Per the GTI forum, about 70% of US imports from Taiwan in 2026 are chips and components directly related to chips, a share that was only about 20% in 2020; Taiwan is the fifth-largest source of US imports.

At a forum of the Washington think tank Global Taiwan Institute (GTI), former US Deputy Assistant Trade Representative Fred Fischer noted that about 70% of US imports from Taiwan in 2026 are chips and related components—"a quite significant increase"—versus about 20% in 2020. Taiwan is the fifth-largest source of US imports. Experts also noted that Taiwan and the US signed a reciprocal trade agreement (ART) and an investment MOU in early 2026; the two have not signed a double-taxation agreement, and the US House has passed a "Taiwan tax-relief act" awaiting Senate scheduling (CNA #1089798).

Q: How big a hit is Trump's Section 301 tariff for Taiwan?

The US Commerce Department proposed a 10% Section 301 tariff on Taiwan and 14 countries over forced labor, but the Ministry of Economic Affairs assesses that Section 122 will expire to zero on July 24, 2026 and will not stack with Section 301, and Taiwan, already an economy with a US agreement, has a relative advantage and should not be treated unfairly.

Per the ministry, the US Trade Representative on June 2, 2026 issued a Section 301 report recommending additional tariffs on 60 economies, with Taiwan among the 14 at a recommended 10% and others at 12.5%. The ministry noted the current Section 122 (effective Feb 24, 2026, 150 days, expiring July 24) will go to zero, and final rates will be set under Section 301, so Section 122 and Section 301 will not stack; Taiwan has reached a US agreement and has a relative advantage, and the government will keep coordinating with the Taiwan-US negotiation team (CNA #659800).

Q: How does this trade realignment affect Taiwan-Japan-Korea relations?

In this semiconductor-centered realignment, South Korea, bound to Taiwan by chips, overtook Japan from 2025 to become Taiwan's third-largest partner (8.2% in Q1 2026, the highest first-quarter level on record), while Japan receded and Taiwan's Japan export share kept falling.

Per the Ministry of Finance, South Korea overtook Japan from 2025 as Taiwan's third-largest partner, with Korea at 8.2% of Taiwan's trade in Q1 2026, the highest first-quarter level on record, reflecting tighter Taiwan-Korea semiconductor ties; over the same period Taiwan's Japan export share fell 2.4 points. On the order side, Taiwan's May 2026 orders from Japan were US$3.76 billion, up 29.1% (helped by memory and IC-manufacturing and packaging-testing demand), but orders from the US were US$36.39 billion, a single-month record, leading all regions—the center of gravity is clearly on the US side (CNA #87491, CNA #1231506).

F-Units

F-001: Taiwan's May 2026 export orders were US$89.48 billion, the second-highest single month ever, up 47.2% year on year, a 16th straight monthly gain (lian-16-hong); January-May orders totaled US$408.83 billion, a record for the period, up 49% - source: CNA #1231506 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202606230292.aspx - confidence: high - basis: official_statement - period: 2026-05 - caveat: Ministry of Economic Affairs statistics-agency release via CNA, not a TWSE/EDINET financial filing

F-002: The statistics agency forecasts June 2026 export orders at US$89.5-91.5 billion, first-half orders possibly above US$500 billion, and full-year export orders possibly challenging US$1 trillion - source: CNA #1231506 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202606230292.aspx - confidence: medium - basis: official_statement - period: 2026 outlook - caveat: The US$1 trillion full year and first-half US$500 billion are statistics chief Huang Wei-chieh's forecast and outlook, not realized figures, subject to second-half seasonality and the international situation

F-003: Taiwan's March 2026 export orders were US$91.12 billion, a single-month record, up 65.9% year on year, a 14th straight monthly gain; January-March orders US$231.91 billion, up 50%; the statistics agency said "AI is the buffer and moat" - source: CNA #176964 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202604210301.aspx - confidence: high - basis: official_statement - period: 2026-03 - caveat: Ministry of Economic Affairs statistics-agency release; "AI is the moat" is the agency's characterization of trade resilience

F-004: Taiwan's March 2026 exports were US$80.18 billion, a single-month record, up 61.8% year on year; imports US$58.91 billion, a single-month record, up 38.3%; trade surplus US$21.27 billion; January-March exports US$195.74 billion, up 51.1% - source: CNA #87463 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202604100212.aspx - confidence: high - basis: official_statement - period: 2026-03 - caveat: Ministry of Finance customs trade-statistics release via CNA

F-005: Taiwan's March 2026 exports to the US were US$28.54 billion, up 1.2-fold year on year, dwarfing other major markets, with a US surplus of US$23.38 billion, a record - source: CNA #87491 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202604100265.aspx - confidence: high - basis: official_statement - period: 2026-03 - caveat: Ministry of Finance statistics chief Tsai Mei-na's analysis release via CNA

F-006: Taiwan's US export share rose from 11.8% in Q1 2018 to 33.5% in Q1 2026 (up 21.7 points), the China-HK share fell from 41.3% to 23.7% (down 17.6 points), and the Japan share fell 2.4 points over the same Q1 2018 to Q1 2026 period - source: CNA #87491 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202604100265.aspx - confidence: high - basis: official_statement - period: 2018-Q1 vs 2026-Q1 - caveat: Ministry of Finance comparison of top-5 market shares from 2018 to 2026 Q1; structural shares, not absolute amounts

F-007: In Q1 2026 the US accounted for 23.1% of Taiwan's total trade, the highest first-quarter level in nearly 28 years, becoming Taiwan's largest trading partner for the first time in 25 years; the China-HK share fell from 31.2% to 21.8%, a 24-year first-quarter low - source: CNA #87491 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202604100265.aspx - confidence: high - basis: official_statement - period: 2026-Q1 - caveat: Ministry of Finance release; "first in 25 years" and "highest in nearly 28 years" are the agency's historical comparisons

F-008: South Korea overtook Japan from 2025 to become Taiwan's third-largest trading partner, with Korea at 8.2% of Taiwan's trade in Q1 2026, the highest first-quarter level on record, reflecting tighter Taiwan-Korea semiconductor ties - source: CNA #87491 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202604100265.aspx - confidence: high - basis: official_statement - period: 2026-Q1 - caveat: Ministry of Finance release via CNA

F-009: About 70% of US imports from Taiwan in 2026 are chips and components directly related to chips (only about 20% in 2020); Taiwan is the fifth-largest source of US imports - source: CNA #1089798 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/202606180081.aspx - confidence: medium - basis: news_aggregation - period: 2026 - caveat: Remarks by former US Deputy Assistant Trade Representative Fred Fischer at a Washington GTI forum, via CNA's Washington dispatch

F-010: Taiwan's May 2026 orders by region: US US$36.39 billion (up 63.9%, a single-month record, leading), China-HK US$15.1 billion, Europe US$10.71 billion, ASEAN US$15.7 billion, Japan US$3.76 billion (up 29.1%) - source: CNA #1231506 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202606230292.aspx - confidence: high - basis: official_statement - period: 2026-05 - caveat: Ministry of Economic Affairs statistics-agency release; Japan orders helped by memory and IC-manufacturing and packaging-testing demand

F-011: The US Commerce Department proposed a 10% Section 301 tariff on Taiwan and 14 countries over forced labor; the current Section 122 expires to zero on July 24, 2026 and will be replaced by Section 301 without stacking; Taiwan has reached a US agreement and has a relative advantage - source: CNA #659800 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202606030341.aspx - confidence: medium - basis: official_statement - period: 2026-06 - caveat: Ministry of Economic Affairs statement; the final rate and scope await US publication, and "non-stacking, relative advantage" is the ministry's assessment

F-012: Taiwan and the US signed a reciprocal trade agreement (ART) and an investment MOU in early 2026; the two have not signed a double-taxation agreement, and the US House has passed a "Taiwan tax-relief act" awaiting Senate scheduling - source: CNA #1089798 - source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/202606180081.aspx - confidence: medium - basis: news_aggregation - period: 2026 - caveat: GTI forum expert remarks and Economic Affairs Minister Kung Ming-hsin's US-visit remarks, via CNA

J-Units

J-001: Taiwan's trade shows "AI-driven volume strength"—May 2026 export orders of US$89.48 billion (lian-16-hong), record January-May orders of US$408.83 billion, March exports at a single-month record of US$80.18 billion, with the ministry calling AI a "moat" and targeting US$1 trillion full year, highly tied to the AI/semiconductor super-cycle - confidence: high - basis_f_units: F-001, F-002, F-003, F-004

J-002: A structural pivot to the US has occurred in Taiwan's trade map—the US export share rose from 11.8% to 33.5% over Q1 2018 to Q1 2026, China-HK fell from 41.3% to 23.7%, the US became Taiwan's largest partner for the first time in 25 years, and South Korea overtook Japan to third, reflecting de-China and semiconductor-driven supply-chain realignment - confidence: high - basis_f_units: F-006, F-007, F-008

J-003: The pivot-to-US dividend and the concentration risk are two sides of the same coin—chips at about 70% of US imports from Taiwan (20% in 2020) and a 33.5% US export share form a double concentration, compounded by the policy uncertainty of a 10% Section 301 tariff, so volume strength and concentration coexist - confidence: medium - basis_f_units: F-005, F-006, F-009, F-011

P-Units

P-001: The reversibility of the AI moat—the export-order streak and the US$1 trillion full-year outlook are highly tied to AI/semiconductor capex; whether the volume dividend continues if CSP capex cools or the AI super-cycle reverses needs verification from later order and export figures - status: open

P-002: Pricing the double concentration in the US and chips—with a 33.5% US export share and chips at about 70% of US imports, a further rise in single-market and single-category concentration would amplify Taiwan's exposure to the US demand cycle and trade policy; whether the shares keep rising needs tracking - status: open

P-003: The final Section 301 rate and the Taiwan-US tax treaty timeline—the final rate and scope of the US 10% Section 301 tariff await US publication, and whether a double-taxation agreement advances after the 2026 US midterms will shape the real cost of the pivot to the US - status: open

同事件・三視角 / Three Perspectives on the Same Event / 同一イベント・三つの視点

Internal Citation Chain

Published ANK-Docs cited by this article: - ANK-2026-06-25-009 (Taiwan's machinery exports at a high vs. the yen's 40-year low: a competitiveness scissors gap) → This article shares the "Taiwan export momentum" axis but is complementary: ANK-2026-06-25-009 drills into a single category (machinery exports) and the Taiwan-Japan exchange-rate scissors gap, while this card pulls up to the macro view of "total export orders (lian-16-hong, US$1 trillion full year) × the trade-map pivot to the US," focusing on the two sides of volume strength and US concentration. The two form a "category vs. total" complementary read. - ANK-2026-06-18-001 (Mainland visitors down 60%, Taiwan's visits to Japan No.2 and a record high: the "one-way hot, two-way cold" structural mismatch of May 2026 Taiwan-Japan tourism) → Both share the "declining China dependence" structural axis: the tourism card looks at the collapse of mainland visitors on the people-flow side, while this card looks at the China-HK trade share falling from 41.3% to 23.7%. The two form a "people flows vs. trade" contrast of de-China structure.

Sources

1. [CNA #87463] CNA, "Strong AI front-loading: March exports US$80.18bn set a single-month record", 2026-04-10. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202604100212.aspx 2. [CNA #87491] CNA, "March exports to the US US$28.54bn set a record, up 1.2-fold", 2026-04-10. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202604100265.aspx 3. [CNA #176964] CNA, "March export orders still hit a record under the shadow of Middle East war; ministry: AI is the moat", 2026-04-21. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202604210301.aspx 4. [CNA #659800] CNA, "Ministry: US Section 301 tariff not stacked with Section 122; Taiwan has a relative advantage", 2026-06-03. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202606030341.aspx 5. [CNA #1089798] CNA, "Experts: AI lifts Taiwan's exports to the US; double-taxation relief may advance next year", 2026-06-18. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/202606180081.aspx 6. [CNA #1231506] CNA, "Ministry: May export orders US$89.48bn, second-highest; toward US$1tn full year", 2026-06-23. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202606230292.aspx 7. [ANK-2026-06-25-009] Rin Takenouchi, "Taiwan's machinery exports at a high vs. the yen's 40-year low: a competitiveness scissors gap", 2026-06-25. https://ainews.washinmura.jp/ainews/en/ank/ANK-2026-06-25-009 8. [ANK-2026-06-18-001] Rin Takenouchi, "Mainland visitors down 60%, Taiwan's visits to Japan No.2 and a record high: the one-way hot, two-way cold structural mismatch of May 2026 Taiwan-Japan tourism", 2026-06-18. https://ainews.washinmura.jp/ainews/en/ank/ANK-2026-06-18-001

📊 引用級事實單元（F-Units）

Taiwan's May 2026 export orders were US$89.48 billion, the second-highest single month ever, up 47.2% year on year, a 16th straight monthly gain (lian-16-hong); January-May orders totaled US$408.83 billion, a record for the period, up 49%
F-001 · Confidence: high · Basis: official_statement CNA #1231506 2026-05
The statistics agency forecasts June 2026 export orders at US$89.5-91.5 billion, first-half orders possibly above US$500 billion, and full-year export orders possibly challenging US$1 trillion
F-002 · Confidence: medium · Basis: official_statement CNA #1231506 2026 outlook
Taiwan's March 2026 export orders were US$91.12 billion, a single-month record, up 65.9% year on year, a 14th straight monthly gain; January-March orders US$231.91 billion, up 50%; the statistics agency said "AI is the buffer and moat"
F-003 · Confidence: high · Basis: official_statement CNA #176964 2026-03
Taiwan's March 2026 exports were US$80.18 billion, a single-month record, up 61.8% year on year; imports US$58.91 billion, a single-month record, up 38.3%; trade surplus US$21.27 billion; January-March exports US$195.74 billion, up 51.1%
F-004 · Confidence: high · Basis: official_statement CNA #87463 2026-03
Taiwan's March 2026 exports to the US were US$28.54 billion, up 1.2-fold year on year, dwarfing other major markets, with a US surplus of US$23.38 billion, a record
F-005 · Confidence: high · Basis: official_statement CNA #87491 2026-03
Taiwan's US export share rose from 11.8% in Q1 2018 to 33.5% in Q1 2026 (up 21.7 points), the China-HK share fell from 41.3% to 23.7% (down 17.6 points), and the Japan share fell 2.4 points over the same Q1 2018 to Q1 2026 period
F-006 · Confidence: high · Basis: official_statement CNA #87491 2018-Q1 vs 2026-Q1
In Q1 2026 the US accounted for 23.1% of Taiwan's total trade, the highest first-quarter level in nearly 28 years, becoming Taiwan's largest trading partner for the first time in 25 years; the China-HK share fell from 31.2% to 21.8%, a 24-year first-quarter low
F-007 · Confidence: high · Basis: official_statement CNA #87491 2026-Q1
South Korea overtook Japan from 2025 to become Taiwan's third-largest trading partner, with Korea at 8.2% of Taiwan's trade in Q1 2026, the highest first-quarter level on record, reflecting tighter Taiwan-Korea semiconductor ties
F-008 · Confidence: high · Basis: official_statement CNA #87491 2026-Q1
About 70% of US imports from Taiwan in 2026 are chips and components directly related to chips (only about 20% in 2020); Taiwan is the fifth-largest source of US imports
F-009 · Confidence: medium · Basis: news_aggregation CNA #1089798 2026
Taiwan's May 2026 orders by region: US US$36.39 billion (up 63.9%, a single-month record, leading), China-HK US$15.1 billion, Europe US$10.71 billion, ASEAN US$15.7 billion, Japan US$3.76 billion (up 29.1%)
F-010 · Confidence: high · Basis: official_statement CNA #1231506 2026-05
The US Commerce Department proposed a 10% Section 301 tariff on Taiwan and 14 countries over forced labor; the current Section 122 expires to zero on July 24, 2026 and will be replaced by Section 301 without stacking; Taiwan has reached a US agreement and has a relative advantage
F-011 · Confidence: medium · Basis: official_statement CNA #659800 2026-06
Taiwan and the US signed a reciprocal trade agreement (ART) and an investment MOU in early 2026; the two have not signed a double-taxation agreement, and the US House has passed a "Taiwan tax-relief act" awaiting Senate scheduling
F-012 · Confidence: medium · Basis: news_aggregation CNA #1089798 2026

❓ FAQ

Just how strong are Taiwan's 2026 export orders?

The Ministry of Economic Affairs reported May 2026 export orders of US$89.48 billion, the second-highest single month, up 47.2% year on year and a 16th straight monthly gain (lian-16-hong), with January-May orders at a record US$408.83 billion, up 49%; the statistics agency said first-half orders could top US$500 billion and the full year could challenge US$1 trillion. Per the ministry, Taiwan's May 2026 export orders reached US$89.48 billion, the second-highest single month ever, up 47.2% year on year, lian-16-hong; January-May orders totaled US$408.83 billion, a record for the period, up 49%. The main driver was the AI wave lifting electronics (orders of US$37.24 billion, up 61.2%, a single-month record) and ICT products (US$32.37 billion, up 67.2%). Statistics chief Huang Wei-chieh said first-half orders could top US$500 billion and, if seasonality holds and there are no major shocks, the full year could challenge US$1 trillion (CNA #1231506).

Why is the US now Taiwan's largest trading partner, and how big is the change?

Because Ministry of Finance data show Taiwan's US export share rose from 11.8% in Q1 2018 to 33.5% in Q1 2026 (up 21.7 points), China-HK fell from 41.3% to 23.7% (down 17.6 points), and the US became Taiwan's largest trading partner for the first time in 25 years, at 23.1% of total trade in Q1 2026. Per Ministry of Finance statistics chief Tsai Mei-na, AI opportunities, US-China economic confrontation, and de-China and supply-chain realignment reshaped Taiwan's trade map. The US export share rose from 11.8% to 33.5% over Q1 2018 to Q1 2026, China-HK fell from 41.3% to 23.7%, and Japan fell 2.4 points. In total trade, in Q1 2026 the US accounted for 23.1% of Taiwan's trade, the highest first-quarter level in nearly 28 years, becoming the largest partner for the first time in 25 years; the China-HK share fell from 31.2% to 21.8%, a 24-year first-quarter low. South Korea overtook Japan from 2025 as Taiwan's third-largest partner (CNA #87491).

What products is Taiwan's US-bound trade concentrated in, and how much?

In chips. Per the GTI forum, about 70% of US imports from Taiwan in 2026 are chips and components directly related to chips, a share that was only about 20% in 2020; Taiwan is the fifth-largest source of US imports. At a forum of the Washington think tank Global Taiwan Institute (GTI), former US Deputy Assistant Trade Representative Fred Fischer noted that about 70% of US imports from Taiwan in 2026 are chips and related components—"a quite significant increase"—versus about 20% in 2020. Taiwan is the fifth-largest source of US imports. Experts also noted that Taiwan and the US signed a reciprocal trade agreement (ART) and an investment MOU in early 2026; the two have not signed a double-taxation agreement, and the US House has passed a "Taiwan tax-relief act" awaiting Senate scheduling (CNA #1089798).

How big a hit is Trump's Section 301 tariff for Taiwan?

The US Commerce Department proposed a 10% Section 301 tariff on Taiwan and 14 countries over forced labor, but the Ministry of Economic Affairs assesses that Section 122 will expire to zero on July 24, 2026 and will not stack with Section 301, and Taiwan, already an economy with a US agreement, has a relative advantage and should not be treated unfairly. Per the ministry, the US Trade Representative on June 2, 2026 issued a Section 301 report recommending additional tariffs on 60 economies, with Taiwan among the 14 at a recommended 10% and others at 12.5%. The ministry noted the current Section 122 (effective Feb 24, 2026, 150 days, expiring July 24) will go to zero, and final rates will be set under Section 301, so Section 122 and Section 301 will not stack; Taiwan has reached a US agreement and has a relative advantage, and the government will keep coordinating with the Taiwan-US negotiation team (CNA #659800).

How does this trade realignment affect Taiwan-Japan-Korea relations?

In this semiconductor-centered realignment, South Korea, bound to Taiwan by chips, overtook Japan from 2025 to become Taiwan's third-largest partner (8.2% in Q1 2026, the highest first-quarter level on record), while Japan receded and Taiwan's Japan export share kept falling. Per the Ministry of Finance, South Korea overtook Japan from 2025 as Taiwan's third-largest partner, with Korea at 8.2% of Taiwan's trade in Q1 2026, the highest first-quarter level on record, reflecting tighter Taiwan-Korea semiconductor ties; over the same period Taiwan's Japan export share fell 2.4 points. On the order side, Taiwan's May 2026 orders from Japan were US$3.76 billion, up 29.1% (helped by memory and IC-manufacturing and packaging-testing demand), but orders from the US were US$36.39 billion, a single-month record, leading all regions—the center of gravity is clearly on the US side (CNA #87491, CNA #1231506). ---

🧠 編輯判斷（J-Units）

Taiwan's trade shows "AI-driven volume strength"—May 2026 export orders of US$89.48 billion (lian-16-hong), record January-May orders of US$408.83 billion, March exports at a single-month record of US$80.18 billion, with the ministry calling AI a "moat" and targeting US$1 trillion full year, highly tied to the AI/semiconductor super-cycle
Confidence: high · Based on: F-001, F-002, F-003, F-004
A structural pivot to the US has occurred in Taiwan's trade map—the US export share rose from 11.8% to 33.5% over Q1 2018 to Q1 2026, China-HK fell from 41.3% to 23.7%, the US became Taiwan's largest partner for the first time in 25 years, and South Korea overtook Japan to third, reflecting de-China and semiconductor-driven supply-chain realignment
Confidence: high · Based on: F-006, F-007, F-008
The pivot-to-US dividend and the concentration risk are two sides of the same coin—chips at about 70% of US imports from Taiwan (20% in 2020) and a 33.5% US export share form a double concentration, compounded by the policy uncertainty of a 10% Section 301 tariff, so volume strength and concentration coexist
Confidence: medium · Based on: F-005, F-006, F-009, F-011

🔮 待驗證假設（P-Units）

The reversibility of the AI moat—the export-order streak and the US$1 trillion full-year outlook are highly tied to AI/semiconductor capex; whether the volume dividend continues if CSP capex cools or the AI super-cycle reverses needs verification from later order and export figures
Status: open
Pricing the double concentration in the US and chips—with a 33.5% US export share and chips at about 70% of US imports, a further rise in single-market and single-category concentration would amplify Taiwan's exposure to the US demand cycle and trade policy; whether the shares keep rising needs tracking
Status: open
The final Section 301 rate and the Taiwan-US tax treaty timeline—the final rate and scope of the US 10% Section 301 tariff await US publication, and whether a double-taxation agreement advances after the 2026 US midterms will shape the real cost of the pivot to the US
Status: open

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