Hong Kong asset management firm O陸 Capital predicts that China will likely emerge from its deflationary slump within this year, possibly by the third quarter. According to CEO Cai Jinqiang, despite economic challenges like local debt and real estate issues, three factors point to recovery: rising global commodity prices causing imported inflation, a record trade surplus of $1.15 trillion boosting currency confidence, and expected rebounds in major city housing prices by mid-year. The yuan is also anticipated to appreciate steadily, aiding the economic turnaround.