Central News Agency (CNA, Taipei, July 2) Fubon Financial Chief Economist Robert Robles said today that in the second half of the year, three major aspects will influence global political and economic trends, including supply-side shocks, central bank monetary policy, and AI capital expenditures. The economy in the second half of the year is expected to have a 50% chance of a soft landing. If the results of the US-Iran agreement and the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) future monetary policy are confirmed between late August and September, global markets may see an upward trend. Fubon Financial held its mid-year press conference for the "2026 Fubon Financial Trends Forum" this morning. Robles stated that three major themes will impact global political and economic situations in the second half of this year: supply-side shocks, central bank monetary policy, and AI capital expenditures. Investors need to closely monitor risks such as the continuation of geopolitical conflicts, reflationary pressures, and the domestic and foreign political and economic actions of US President Trump. Robles said, first, how the global economy will respond to supply-side shocks. The US and Iran have reached a phased agreement, aiming for a final agreement within 60 days. If an agreement is successfully reached by the end of August, the conflict will end, which would be unequivocally good news for the market. The impact of the US-Iran war on the real economy was not as severe as initially imagined, and in the short term, the risk of Middle East conflict has cooled, but continued attention is still required. Second, the monetary policy directions of central banks worldwide are diverging. Developed countries face reflationary pressures, while emerging and frontier market countries need to balance exchange rates and economic growth. Robles pointed out that central banks in Japan, Europe, and Australia have successively raised interest rates, and Asian countries like Indonesia and the Philippines h